WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING AND WHY IT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE in Visual C#.NET

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WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING AND WHY IT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE
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In this environment, prices for Old Economy companies such as US consumer-products-based firms Heinz and Sara Lee fell well below their intrinsic values, creating opportunities for value investors who sought highquality businesses In early 2000, a value investor could have purchased shares of Heinz and Sara Lee for $29 and $15, respectively Two years later, Heinz had climbed to $37, and Sara Lee s stock price reached $21
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EMT CLOSING ARGUMENTS
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Additional evidence calls into serious doubt many basic assumptions of the efficient market theory According to Pratten, The 1987 Crash, when the Dow Jones index fell by 307% in six days, gave a new impetus and direction to tests of the EMT and added credibility to tests which contradicted the hypothesis: because such a large and swift fall was not compatible with changes in stock market prices being determined by new information concerning fundamentals alone 6 Pratten concludes, Important assumptions underpinning the EMH simply do not apply in practice Robert A Haugen, a professor of finance at the University of California, Irvine, also has studied the EMT and found it lacking We now see a market that is highly inefficient and overreactive; a market literally turned upside down where the highest-risk adjusted stocks can be expected to produce the lowest returns and the lowest-risk stocks, the highest returns! 7 Like Professor Pratten, Haugen found that emotions play an important role in stock prices Overwhelming evidence is piling up that investors overreact to the past performance of stocks, pricing growth stocks stocks which are expected to grow faster than average too high and value stocks stocks which are expected to grow slower than average too low Subsequent to these overreactions, growth stocks produce low returns for the investors who buy them at high prices, and similarly, value stocks produce high returns for their investors 8
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CONCLUSION
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In the real world, where emotions such as fear and greed abound, logic is often a scarce commodity This situation is rewarding for the value investor, provided, however, that the gap between price and value caused by
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES: WHY VALUE INVESTING WORKS
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such inefficiency can be successfully exploited In the next chapter, I ll review empirical evidence that illustrates the merits of the value-investing approach
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Notes
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1 Daniel Kahneman, The Psychology of the Non-Professional Investor, article presented at Harvard seminar on Behavioral Finance, November 1998 There are many other cognitive illusions and biases For a more exhaustive list, see publications by David Dreman, Daniel Kahneman, and Amos Tversky Harrison Hong and Jeffrey Kubik, Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts, The Financial Times, February 2002 Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor: A Book of Practical Counsel, 4th rev ed, New York: Harper & Row, 1973, p 287 Cliff Pratten, The Stock Market, Cambridge: University Press, 1993, p 174 Ibid, p 25 Robert A Haugen, The New Finance: The Case against Efficient Markets, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995, p 1 Ibid
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THE VALUE PEDIGREE AND THE REWARDS OF VALUE INVESTING
ertain investors are obtaining superior results, watching their portfolios grow, taking some profits, and encountering minimal risk over the long term How Not by listening to innumerable prophets, the ones that spring up during bad times with new strategies and advice Nor by employing complicated theories such as market timing, technical analysis, or efficient market hypotheses or any of the intricate tools of academics or market technicians for that matter And certainly not by happenstance or accident These investors goals are being accomplished instead by doing it the oldfashioned way through fundamental, classic value investing The purpose of this chapter is to review the potential rewards of value investing Actual records of professional money managers, as well as results from performance studies, are presented Keep in mind that value
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