WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING AND WHY IT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE in C#

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WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING AND WHY IT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE
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or services But I will not consider them for purchase if their stock prices far exceed their underlying business worth in other words, if they offer no margin of safety Near the peak of the Internet stock mania in early 2000, share prices for various dot-com or New Economy companies (many of which were not solid or established and offered unproven products or services) were leaping to successive record highs At the same time, share prices languished for Old Economy companies in industries such as insurance, utilities, and manufacturing At that point, some market participants mistakenly believed that New Economy growth stocks were stocks that went up, while Old Economy value stocks were those that went down Returns for value and growth stock indices appeared to support this notion By the end of March 2000 even as technology stocks began their retreat the Nasdaq 100, a measure of returns for the 100 largest companies in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, had gained 1087 percent in the prior 12 months versus only 133 percent for the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) The DJIA measures returns for 30 major US companies Technology stocks, spurred by shares of start-up Internet firms, were soaring while it seemed the rest of the market was being left behind, some said for good In fact, many of the best-performing stocks at the time were initial public offerings or IPOs companies that had never issued stock before Of the 486 IPOs in 1999, about half were Internet-related companies that gained, on average, 147 percent their first day of trading Exhibit 1-3 illustrates the divergent paths of technology growth stocks, as measured by the Nasdaq 100, versus the broader market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index At that time, I believed this divergence between growth and value stocks represented the biggest two-tiered market bubble that I had seen since starting my career in 1968 I didn t believe the gains were sustainable because the prices for so many stocks climbed to ridiculous heights levels that were well beyond the intrinsic values of the underlying companies While I was scratching my head over the market s ridiculous excesses, my firm was taking advantage of that environment by adding to our portfolios solid businesses trading at extremely attractive prices I was more excited about the opportunities available for value investors, especially in the United States, than I had been in nearly 20 years When the bubble burst in March 2000, the majority of dot-com stocks offered no margin of safety In the wake of huge losses, market participants returned their attention to fundamental strengths and the out-of-favor stocks my firm had purchased during the Internet-stock run-up were once
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WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING
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EXHIBIT 1-3 Two-Tiered Market (Growth of $1 from March 1, 1999 to March 1, 2000)
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22 20 US Dollars 18 16 14 12 10 S&P 500 Nasdaq 100
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Note: All performance is historical and cannot guarantee future results Indices are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into Reinvestment of dividend and capital gains assumed Your actual results may vary Source: RIMES Technologies Corp Data as of March 1, 2000
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again attracting attention Their share prices generally rose while many of the highly touted New Economy stocks declined I ll share more insights on the Internet stock bubble throughout Part 1 of this book The Internet bubble illustrated one important difference between growth stocks and value stocks: Growth stocks tend to be accompanied by expectations for future earnings that are far greater than the average shown in the past Such stocks are often in exciting new industries, about which there is a great deal of promise and optimism During the Internet-stock heyday, you may recall all the articles that claimed, this time it s different ; a statement I d rank for reliability right up there with the check s in the mail However, when it comes to future earnings growth, it is extremely difficult to project it with a high degree of confidence Additionally, the farther out the prediction, the more likely it s going to be off target It is particularly questionable to build long-term forecasts of well-above-average growth in earnings for companies, as unforeseen competition will almost certainly arise to wrest away some of these hyperprofits, making such predictions very unreliable Value investors believe that the best approach is to focus on the current state of the business: what it would be worth now to someone who wanted to buy the whole company This is a more conservative approach, recognizing the limitations of trying to outforecast other investors
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