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The QUALCOMM example also helps illustrate the dangers of optimism We tend to think of optimism as a desirable trait and, in most cases, it can
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WHAT IS VALUE INVESTING AND WHY IT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE
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be However, when investing, dispassionate analysis often proves more profitable Decisions should be based on the relationship between business value and stock price Period All investors should be wary of becoming too optimistic as the desire to win on Wall Street may have quite the opposite effect In addition to guarding against personal optimism, be wary of adopting others optimistic views on particular companies even if those others are professional analysts Exhibit 2-1 illustrates the perennial overoptimism of Wall Street analysts and economists Based on research by David Dreman, Standard & Poor s, and First Call, analysts have, on average, predicted an earnings growth rate roughly four times that of the average rate observed Economists, far from being the pessimistic dismal scientists we might have expected, have predicted a growth rate nearly three times the actual rate A striking characteristic of this optimistic pattern is its persistence, even when the forecasters may have seen that their predictions were overshooting the mark year after year Observing that their predictions bore little resemblance to reality, they might have reassessed the inherent predictability of earnings and adjusted their predictions downward, closer to the long-term historical average Truly rational forecasters might have adopted a more regressive approach: the lower the inherent predictability, the closer the prediction should be to the long-term average But there does not seem to be any evidence that the forecasters are recalibrating their estimates Why should analysts be systematically overly optimistic A 2002 study shows Wall Street analysts get paid more if they are Research by Harrison Hong, an associate professor at Stanford Business School, and Jeffrey Kubik of Syracuse University found that analysts who deliver optimistic earnings forecasts (not necessarily accurate forecasts) are more likely to be promoted3 This is yet another reason to be cautious when analyzing businesses and acting on information provided by experts Faulty intuition, extrapolation, and optimism can set the stage for overconfidence and subsequent overreaction While overconfidence in intuitive models can lead to losses, it also may cause investors to miss opportunities for gains For example, an incorrect model might lead to the belief that a poorly performing business will never recover In the late 1970s and early 1980s, expectations of continued stagflation led to a general negative overreaction by investors The resulting low stock prices prompted BusinessWeek magazine to proclaim the Death of Equities in a cover story published on August 13, 1979 As it turned out, within a few years, stocks began what would become the greatest bull market in US history
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BEHAVIORAL BIASES: WHY VALUE INVESTING WORKS
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EXHIBIT 2-1 Congenital Optimism: Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 Index 1982 2002 Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Average
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Sources:
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Analysts Estimate 262% 322% 342% 108% 228% 326% 298% 105% 138% 19% 380% 228% 389% 109% 182% 137% 136% 146% 160% 160% 170% 207%
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Economists Estimate 53% 247% 277% 129% 229% 188% 145% 44% 120% 67% 487% 364% 286% 48% 117% 58% 67% 45% 00% 77% 101% 150%
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Actual Growth 178% 114% 184% 122% 09% 209% 358% 37% 67% 252% 195% 147% 398% 110% 141% 26% 51% 277% 38% 506% 134% 53%
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David Dreman; Standard & Poor s; First Call
Value investors recognize tendencies such as faulty intuition, extrapolation, and optimism and establish predetermined processes based on objective analysis rather than personal preference or out-of-context judgments to guide their investment decisions I will explore the benefits of establishing and following investment processes in greater detail in Parts 2 and 4 of this book, when I more closely study how to identify value stocks and manage portfolios
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