c# qr code webcam scanner The Stock Market Connection in C#

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The Stock Market Connection
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Dow Jones Index and the number of M&A transactions
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Sources: Mergerstat; Datastream; AT Kearney analysis
Figure 8-1 The correlation between the Dow Jones Index and the number of M&A transactions in the United States (1989 2001)
leveraged move to diversify into the financial services field One year later, however, Tyco began looking to unload CIT Financial for a loss when the balance sheets of highly debtRising stock markets and leveraged companies (like Tyco) came under lots of merger activity scrutiny for possible financial irregularities in don t always guarantee a the backwash following the failure of Enron successful acquisition strategy Rising stock markets and lots of merger activity don t always guarantee a successful acquisition strategy Expanding our field of vision a little further, the same holds true for the European markets, where Figure 8-2 shows that the Euro Stoxx and merger activity are 80% correlated In Japan, however, a different picture emerges (see Figure 8-3) Merger activity was relatively flat while the Nikkei Index plummeted in the early- and mid-1990s However, in the midst of the Asian economic crisis in 1998, merger activity rocketed upward This discrepancy can be traced to a number of Endgames-related factors:
In Japan, financial services companies, automotive companies,
Winning the Merger Endgame
14,000
Euro Stoxx
12,000
Number of M&A transactions (Europe)
Number of M&A transactions
10,000
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx
300 8,000
6,000
150 4,000 100 2,000 50
Sources: Mergerstat; Datastream; AT Kearney analysis
Figure 8-2 The correlation between the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx and the number of M&A transactions in Europe (1989 2001)
and real estate assets industries had fallen so much in value that investors believed they could be acquired for a reasonable price These companies were all in Stage 2 industries, prompting foreign banks to jump in and make a number of acquisitions as part of their global Endgames consolidation strategy The Japanese government encouraged the merger of several troubled financial services institutions as it began to deregulate and reform this huge industry Although acquisitions of Japanese companies by foreign companies were rare, after the Asian crisis the Japanese government could no longer insulate national companies from foreign acquirers The market began to open up and globalize, primarily in Japan s Stage 2 and 3 industries
Although merger activity in Japan is not as closely correlated with markets as it is in Europe and North America, it is still driven by Endgames phenomena And when we combine the data for North America, Europe, and Japan, we see that the strong correlation
The Stock Market Connection
45,000
14,000
40,000
Nikkei Index Number of M&A transactions (Japan)
12,000
35,000
Number of M&A transactions
10,000 30,000
Nikkei Index
25,000
8,000
20,000
6,000
15,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 5,000
Sources: Mergerstat; Datastream; AT Kearney analysis
Figure 8-3 The correlation between the Nikkei Index and the number of M&A transactions in Japan (1989 2001)
between share prices and M&A activity also holds true globally If this long-term trend stays intact, the entire global market capitalization for the year 2010 could amount to between US$60 and $80 trillion (see Figure 8-4) The size of this number suggests that there is more than enough room for mega-mergers and the acceleration of merger activity in general that the Endgames model predicts
THERE ARE WINNERS
EVERY ENDGAMES STAGE
Investors can profit at every stage along the Endgames curve In this section, we look at some of the best practices of companies across the entire Endgames spectrum and explain how identifying those practices can lead to superior investments We began by creating Endgames stage-specific indexes based on industry indexes from Dow Jones and plotting their development from the beginning of 1992 until the first quarter of 2002 The Stage 1 index is the combination of the utilities, financial services, and railroads indexes; Stage 2 is chemicals and retailers; Stage 3 is aerospace, auto-
Winning the Merger Endgame
$60 $80 trillion
North America Europe Japan
US$ trillions
$31 trillion $2 trillion $09 trillion
55% 22% 16%
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