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Winning the Merger Endgame
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Percentage of companies in a typical industry across the Endgames curve
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Stage 1 Opening Stage 2 Scale Stage 3 Focus Stage 4 Balance and Alliance
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100% 90%
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Percentage of companies
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80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5 10
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Years
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Sources: Value-Building Growth database; AT Kearney analysis
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Figure 2-1 Predicting industry consolidation and the changing corporate population
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telecommunications, nor did they have the financial resources to fund such capital-intensive investments Thus, the Endgames cycle that we see at work now is a more recent development reaching back to the late 1980s and the start of the current merger and acquisition boom Since that time, the number of mergers has been growing at a compound rate of nearly 21% per year, and the shift toward the super deals continues to grow The trend is clear: as the speed of business continues to increase, so too will the pace of consolidation In fact, we believe that eventually a full consolidation life cycle could run its course in just 10 to 15 years Even in these times of corporate scandal and falling stock prices, the Endgames dynamics are still at work: WorldCom s bankruptcy may induce an asset sale that will implicitly encourage further consolidation and Enron s demise might prod similar consolidation in the energy industry The headline stories, whatever they may be, do not challenge the immutable long-term trends of the Endgames theory Knowing this, we can create long-term forecasts of merger movements and, more specifically, we should be able to predict which target companies might be part of the forecast Eventually, calculations
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Finding Order in Chaos: Rules and Logic of the Endgame
could be performed around what other companies are likely to be involved in and in what time frame 2 All industries are global The days of regional differentiation are over All industries small or large, local or global begin on the same footing and are treated equally by the rules of Endgame consolidation Old strategies that professed, small is beautiful or offered lessons on how companies could survive in a niche are no longer viable in the context of the universal Endgames curve Yes, it s true that there are still microcosms that thrive at the small business level, and there is a new generation of savvy entrepreneurs who develop and will continue to fuel healthy businesses in the shadow of corporate juggernauts well into the future However, even these organizations are held to the rules of the The only optimal size is Endgames And one of the most important rules bigger bigger than last they will eventually face is key to their survival: year, bigger than the comacquire or be acquired In other words, the only petitors, with a strategy to get even bigger tomorrow optimal size is bigger bigger than last year, bigger than the competitors, with a strategy to get even bigger tomorrow Stagnation or a slow-moving consolidation plan will prove disastrous Furthermore, as trade barriers continue to fall and the World Trade Organization becomes stronger and extends its influence into a growing number of countries, the trend toward total industry globalization will only accelerate More and more, companies are expanding their global presence, but to consumers, this incursion remains transparent (see sidebar: Ahold s Global Presence ) Globalization is a strong force that enables industry consolidation During the Asian economic crisis in 1997 and 1998, global organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization assisted and encouraged countries including Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia to restructure their financial institutions and open up their economies by reducing trade barriers A direct result of these restructuring policies was that global financial services companies began to acquire and buy equity stakes in the financial services players in each of these economies From 1998 to 2000, Thailand experienced a wave of acquisition activity:
Winning the Merger Endgame
AHOLD S GLOBAL PRESENCE
The decades-old mantra of go global sometimes belies how geographically unrestricted the marketplace already is And, as Royal Ahold, the Netherlands-based food retail and foodservice company, demonstrates, even the local store isn t as local as it may appear With operations in the United States, Europe, Latin America, and Asia, the company marked more than US$66 billion in consolidated sales in 2001 Its US subsidiary, Ahold, generates roughly 60% of its worldwide sales Starting with its first acquisition (BI-LO) in 1971, it now owns and operates six regional supermarket companies under the brand names of Stop & Shop, Giant (Landover), Giant (Carlisle), Tops, BI-LO, and Bruno s In 2001, Ahold s combined 1,600 stores generated consolidated retail sales of approximately US$23 billion In addition, Ahold owns and operates five US foodservice companies with annual sales of approximately US$19 billion The foodservice operations provide Ahold with a rapidly growing national presence in the still fragmented out-of-home markets And Ahold has leading positions in various specialized foodservice fields, including healthcare, hospitality, restaurant, company cafeterias, and government Ahold s success lies partly in its ability to build close cooperative relationships among units while maintaining local brand identity and culture For example, two years ago Ahold purchased the once-struggling online grocer Peapod, giving it a strong foothold in both Internet commerce and the local markets that Peapod serves Yet few consumers in these markets have ever heard of Ahold or are aware of its ownership when they click on Peapod s Web site
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