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Winning the Merger Endgame
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*CR3 = Market share of the three largest companies of the total market based on VBG database (25,000 companies) Sources: Value-Building Growth database; AT Kearney analysis
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Figure A-1 Industries ranked by consolidation level (1995 1999)
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Endgames Methodology and M&A Transactions
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HHI*
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Defense Tobacco Automatic controls Distillers Shipbuilding Shoes Soft drinks Aircraft mfrs Aerospace suppliers Truck builders Toys Confectionery Rubber & tire producers Automotive OEMs Food Steelmakers Logistics Brewers Railroad Paper Restaurants & fast food Automotive suppliers Telecommunications Chemicals Drugs Airlines Utilities Insurance Banks 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
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*HHI = Hirschman-Herfindahl Index corresponds to the sum of the squared market shares of all companies and is greater than 90%; the axis logarithmically plotted Sources: Value-Building Growth database; AT Kearney analysis
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Figure A-2 Industries ranked by consolidation level (1995 1999)
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The concentration is based on the revenue figures of the included companies, which are measured in US dollars Revenue figures from countries that do not normally use US dollars in their accounting have been converted into US dollars using the respective year-end exchange rate Within quantitative analyses, the official SIC (Standard Industry Classification) industry codes were used for segmentation For deeper analyses, AT Kearney industry specialists were called in to fine-tune the industry picture further
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ENDGAMES CURVE IS CALCULATED
The Endgames curve is based on two sets of values: the concentration degree on the y-axis and the dynamics or speed of concentration on the x-axis In addition to the concentration values, information on the speed is necessary to derive the Endgames curve As a next step therefore, we measure the dynamics the concentration over time, for example to understand whether an industry is consolidating or deconsolidating This was done by defining two five-year time frames from 1990 to 1994 and 1995 to 1999, and measuring the concentration degree twice Based on the difference between the two values one can determine whether an industry is consolidating or deconsolidating (see Figure A-3) Furthermore, it is possible to derive an order or state of these industries based on the degree of concentration and its direction For example, the railroad industry is modestly concentrated and deconsolidating, with the telecommunications industry following close behind Next, look at the consolidating industries with rising degrees of concentration, such as drugs, truck and trailer manufacturers, and defense electronics And finally a high degree of concentration exists and some industries are deconsolidating Based on this natural order, the time that one industry needs to reach the next level of concentration can be calculated based on its current consolidation speed For example, airlines are not forecast many years into the future, but one can forecast the number of years the industry needs at the current consolidation speed to reach the level
Endgames Methodology and M&A Transactions
Deconsolidation
Defense Tobacco Automatic controls Distillers Shipbuilding Shoes Soft drinks Aircraft mfrs Aerospace suppliers Truck builders Toys Confectionery Rubber & tire producers Automotive OEMs Food Steelmakers Logistics Brewers Railroad Paper Restaurants & fast food Automotive suppliers Telecommunications Chemicals Drugs Airlines Utilities Insurance Banks 10 05
CR3*
Consolidation
*CR3 = Market share of the three largest companies of the total market based on VBG database (25,000 companies) Sources: Value-Building Growth database; AT Kearney analysis
Figure A-3 Level of industry consolidation and deconsolidation
Winning the Merger Endgame
of concentration of the next higher concentrated industry, which is pharmaceuticals The development of the pharmaceuticals industry is forecast to the point it reaches the same level of concentration as diversified chemicals and so forth By projecting the trend from one industry to the next, where the different industries reflect different points of concentration, it is possible to get a curve of more than 20 years by using only 10 years of historical data and forecasting only a couple of years into the future The average projection from one consolidation level to the next is only 08 years, with the longest projection being nearly two years from the concentration of railroads down to that of telecommunications
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