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Table 8-3 The Issue of Bandwidth Availability
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Myth The total bandwidth available in the United States increases threefold every year Therefore, there will soon be universal connectivity Some 264 economies have Internet access Therefore, the whole world is connected Bandwidth across the Atlantic will soon amount to more than 1 Mbps for every person in North America and Europe Therefore, usage will soon be too cheap to meter
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Reality The issue is connectivity first and bandwidth second In many parts of the world, connectivity is not readily available, especially at rates higher than T1/E1 The majority of countries have less connectivity than a single Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) link The vast majority of fiber-optic cable is left dark and is made available only when the price is right
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Source: Tim Kelly, Global Internet Connectivity and the Digital Divide, ITU, OECD Workshop on Internet, Traffic Exchange, Berlin, June 7 8, 2001
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Table 8-4 Traffic Statistics
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US Internet backbone Other US public data networks US private-line data US local calls US local phone calls US local calls US intrastate toll US intrastate toll calls US intrastate toll calls US interstate toll US interstate toll US interstate toll US switched access minutes US international outbound US international inbound World telephony Late 2000 Late 1998 Late 1998 1995 1997 1998 1995 1997 1998 1995 1997 1998 1996 1997 1997 20,000 35,000 terabytes (TB)/month 1,000 TB/month 4,000 7,000 TB/month 2,228 GDEM 2,683 GDEM 2,986 GDEM (119,440 TB/month) 344 GDEM 404 GDEM 422 GDEM (16,880 TB/month) 451 GDEM 525 GDEM 555 GDEM (22,200 TB/month) 4688 GDEM 226 GDEM 91 GDEM 572 28 11 600 55 64 31 Network When Volume/Month Gbps
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Note
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123 216 271 327 271 42 49
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November 1996
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ITU direction of traffic 1996 trends in international telephone tariffs are based on an estimate of 640-m phone lines, which are used 20 minutes a day
GDEM stands for giga dial equipment minutes To convert this to Gbps, multiply by 0122; to convert TB/month to Gbps, multiply by 000305 Source: http://wwwcscolumbiaedu/ hgs/internet/traffichtml
Public Network Issues for VoMPLS
estimates that $50 billion dollars in new gear will be needed over the next five years, otherwise US Internet traffic will gradually grind to a halt Insight Research claims that the total US Internet traffic in 2006 will exceed 15 million terabits per day Not only will the number of broadband switches and routers required to move this traffic triple, but the throughput capacity per switch will also increase by a factor of 25 Essentially, all of the switches used in 2006 for distribution and backbone packet networks will be new, and the aggregated investment will amount to almost $50 billion8 It remains to be seen whether this growth includes VoMPLS equipment; however, the outlook appears at this time to be for moderate penetration at best
84 Making Business Sense
Who is the buyer of the VoP technology VoMPLS technology providers have to answer this question Enterprise-based solutions are the easiest to deploy But although enterprise players could easily deploy VoP systems (including VoMPLS), the market opportunity is rather small when pigeonholed to that stratum Therefore, developers have to target the technology to carriers Developers have to clearly understand the economic drivers of the topline voice providers and work assiduously to meet these needs This implies actually pairing down the number of protocol choices (just like when the DVD industry got together early on and settled on one standard to avoid confusing the market) and focusing more on the Operations, Administration, Maintenance, and Provisioning (OAM&P) requirements of the new systems At the very least, equipment costs have to be reduced by 100 percent and opex needs to be reduced by 50 percent Developers need to understand the existing voice architecture of the providers of voice services The new technology will not displace the existing technology on a broad scale at least for a decade Therefore, the new technology has to work in a complementary fashion, and it has to offer new services It is always easy to redesign the core of a network because there are significantly fewer nodes It may be that VoMPLS can set its sights for the next couple of years or so on a core national voice network, although, as noted, that segment is where the least pressure on bandwidth savings exists This choice is driven less by the actual need and more by the capability of the new technology A core application (as simple-minded diagrams shown at conferences or as vendors white papers tend to illustrate) implies supporting the trunking needs for the interconnection of the 8-to-10 national-level backbone deployed by typical national carriers However, if this is the course of entry (that is, of deployment), the feature set of VoMPLS solutions
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