Figure 1-1 Global telecommunications revenues Source: ITU in Visual C#

Decoding PDF417 in Visual C# Figure 1-1 Global telecommunications revenues Source: ITU

Figure 1-1 Global telecommunications revenues Source: ITU
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Service revenue (US$bn)
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Projection of revenue growth (US$bn) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 Domestic Telephone/fax Actual Projected
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Other: Data, Internet, Leased lines, telex, etc Mobile
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6 IP has become ubiquitous in the data arena It is desirable, therefore, to use IP for everything, and IP can be made to support anything and everything 7 A transfer of wealth (market share) from the traditional telephony vendors to the newer data-oriented vendors should occur according to some constituencies Unfortunately, the industry has taken precisely the least compelling approach to the rationalization of the value of VoP The industry advocacy has followed a reverse approach than the one just listed namely, it has taken the following approach in this order: 1 A transfer of wealth (market share) from the traditional telephony vendors to the newer data-oriented vendors should occur according to some constituencies 2 IP has become ubiquitous in the data arena It is desirable, therefore, to use IP for everything, and IP can be made to support anything and everything 3 An elegant new integrated architecture becomes possible: a new doesit-all network that is a based on a single approach supporting a gamut of services
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Motivations, Developments, and Opportunities in VoP
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4 New technologies have become available, which have to be injected into the network because of their technological nicety 5 Although the volume of data is 13 times that of voice in 2002 and it will be 23 times that of voice in 2006, voice still brings in about 80 percent of the revenues for carriers Therefore, voice is a desirable market to optimize with new technologies and/or penetrate 6 The carrier can achieve cost savings by using a packetized technology in the operations budget, the equipment budget, or the transmission budget 7 New applications become possible, thereby generating opportunities for new services and new revenues for example, CTI applications Regrettably, new applications seem to have taken a back seat during the past five years of advocacy The transfer of market share appears to be the major driver for proponents The second focus of the proponents is that VoP conserves bandwidth However, backbone bandwidth has recently become a near commodity, and bandwidth conservation is of limited interest in terms of the overall benefits that VoP can afford Observers now quote a $4,000 monthly recurring charge (MRC) for 1 Gbps of long-haul bandwidth, which equates to $4 million a month for 1 Tbps (see Figure 1-2) As noted, observers also quote that 30 Tbps is being used worldwide for voice A bandwidth compression of 10 to 1 would save 27 Tbps, which would be valued globally at $108 million monthly, or about $13 billion a year, based on the metric just described This saving against a global base of $800 billion a year, however, is less than a 016 percent saving No strategist would embark on a large project involving all new technology, expenditures, technical approaches, billing approaches, operations approaches, training, provisioning, and customer care to save 016 percent from the bottom line In any event, compression is achievable using the vocoding techniques such as code-excited linear prediction (CELP) and algebraic code-excited linear prediction (ACELP), and is not attributable to IP We would hope that this paragraph would register the following punch line and enable the discourse to graduate to a higher plane:
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A discussion of how VoP is more bandwidth efficient makes the case against deploying this technology at all because the savings are completely trivial in the full context of the problem Any value at all for VoP must be in the total new application horizon that it opens up once voice can be generated, stored, transmitted, received, manipulated, enhanced, and correlated in a user s sub-$1,000 PC or handheld voice terminal
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After all, we have had more than 125 years to optimize voice transport If VoP only does something to transport, then it will have rather limited
Figure 1-2 Bandwidth as a commodity Source: RHK, 2000 and CIBC World and Dell Oro Estimates, June 2001
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