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On Earth, life evolved to near perfection in the form of the dinosaurs However, none of them had brain power approaching that of primates such as monkeys, let alone human beings If it were not for a supposed small asteroid or comet splashdown around 65 million years ago, the dinosaurs would still be here, and the Earth would be a vastly different place Many evolutionary scientists think that Homo sapiens wouldn t exist Evolution would never have produced our forebears Dinosaurs would have eaten them! Major cosmic collisions, once life has started to evolve on a planet, are not too likely According to the model of Solar System evolution currently accepted, by the time life was underway on Earth, most of the debris from the primordial solar disk had been swept up into the planets and their moons But minor collisions are common; we can expect that there will be more of these on Earth yet to come Interestingly, these minor collisions can serve as a catalyst for evolution, not a fatal blow, as would be the case with a major collision
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What proportion fi of planets where life has gotten started undergo evolution to the point where intelligence arises The answer to this question dictates the range of values we can realistically assign to fi Evolution and natural selection seem to be relentless processes; we have seen adaptation of species all the way down from ourselves (if we consider Homo sapiens a species of animal) to bacteria that develop immunity to antibiotics and viruses that evolve new forms, evading extermination Given the relentlessness of the evolutionary process and the relative likelihood of changes in the environment that spur the emergence of new evolutionary pathways, we might assign fi a value of about 01 This is a conservative estimate
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TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT: fc
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Even if a life form develops intelligence, it might not reach the level where it communicates by radio On Earth, dolphins (porpoises) and whales can be considered intelligent to a degree However, they lack hands with which to construct machines Some porpoises have brains large enough to suggest that their intelligence surpasses that of Homo sapiens in some ways, but even if that is true, dolphin smarts are qualitatively different from human smarts Suppose that there exist planets covered by oceans teeming with marine animals having intelligence greater than our own These animals would not have the physical ability to develop radio transmitters and receivers, cars, boats, and airplanes They would have no need of these devices (as some people argue humanity has no need of radios, cars, boats, and airplanes) What proportion fc of intelligent species goes on to manufacture the means to communicate among the stars and to conduct their own SETI programs It is hard to say Let us suppose that 1 out of 10 planets with intelligent life harbors civilizations capable of communicating by radio; then that proportion fc is equal to 01 Some scientists lump fi and fc together as a product because there is disagreement on exactly what level of brain power constitutes intelligence Let s get around this problem by estimating that fi fc 001
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AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF TECHNOLOGICAL CIVILIZATIONS: L
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Once a civilization has become intelligent and has developed radio, and once it has turned its electromagnetic ears and voice to the heavens, how long will such beings remain capable of communicating It is tempting to suppose that curiosity would drive any intelligent species, anywhere in the universe, to seek out life in other star systems, but we do not know this
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The Search for Extraterrestrial Life
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There is a dark point here: As part of our technological progress, we humans have created weapons of destruction that could annihilate our whole population or at least throw us back to near stone-age conditions How likely is this How long can we expect our society to exist as we know it, with radio telescopes and SETI programs Let s say that a civilization lasts for L years before evolving out of existence What is the value of L Again, the best we can do is make a guess During the 1960s and 1970s, at the height of the Cold War, many people became convinced that human civilization on Earth was doomed to bomb itself out of existence, and soon Today this view is not as widespread, but unless and until Homo sapiens gets rid of its war gene, the danger remains Suppose that a planetary population, at least some of whom can communicate by radio, maintains this level of sophistication for at least 10,000 years before something war, famine, disease, or asteroid impact puts an end to it Then L 10,000 However, even in this case, after the disaster has passed, evolution would continue along its way, and in some cases this would lead to another technologically advanced civilization This would multiply the value of L Nevertheless, let s be conservative and set L 10,000
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