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Advanced Hints Sometimes it s best to look at a range of numbers For example, the all-securities Call/Put Ratio may have the following range: bullish at 50 to 90; bearish over 150 Also, the equities-only Call/Put Ratio may have the following range: bullish at 65 to 130; bearish over 250 Watch for extreme bullish/bearish readings that represent the 10 percent highest and lowest ISEE values over a period of time Keep in mind that the bullish/bearish ranges should be periodically updated to reflect changes in market conditions and ISEE values
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By now you realize that the options market gives some very good clues as to investment sentiment Next, I d like to introduce you to another indicator that comes from the options world More than likely, you ve heard its name on television or read about it in a newspaper The next indicator we ll learn about is the well-known and popular VIX
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CHICAGO BOARD OPTIONS EXCHANGE VOLATILITY INDEX
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Name: Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) Symbol: $VIX on wwwstockchartscom* Where to find: wwwstockchartscom, any chart program, on the CBOE Web site, or reported daily in most major financial newspapers Time period: Any The Lighter Side: The VIX, which I nicknamed Scaredy Cat, explodes higher when there is uncertainty and panic, and sinks when it s calm Others have referred to it as the Chicken Little Index because it works best when people think the sky is falling
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*If you re using StockChartscom, you enter a $ before the symbol, but this could vary with other chart programs Ask your brokerage firm for the symbol it uses
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The VIX indicator measures volatility and fear in the market by tracking the implied volatility of call and put options for a 30-day period
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STEP-BY-STEP: HOW TO READ THE VIX IN FIVE MINUTES
1 Type wwwstockchartscom in your Web address line (or open any chart program) 2 On the right side of the screen under Symbol, type $VIX and press Go 3 Hint: To make the chart easier to read, change it to a line chart The settings are below the chart (In StockChartscom, go to Chart Attributes, and under Type, there is a drop-down menu Click and change to Thin Line Click on Update to accept the changes) 4 Note: You can also change the time period of the chart to three months (Under Range, there is a drop-down menu Change the default to Three Months, and press Update ) 5 It should look something like Figure 17
FIGURE
$VIX (Daily) 2705
450 400 350 300 2705 250
Source: StockChartscom
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FIGURE
VIX CBOE Volatility Index Open High 2264 2287
Source: CBOE
Low 2176
Close 2199
6 Note: You can also go directly to the wwwcboecom Web site for the current VIX Under the Quotes and Data tab, select CBOE Daily Market Statistics Scroll to the middle of the page It will look similar to Figure 18
WHAT SIGNALS TO LOOK FOR
1 Buy: When the VIX hits 40, there is panic in the options world, so you can consider buying stocks If it goes over 50, the S&P 500 could be near a bottom 2 Sell: When the VIX goes under 20, option traders are relatively calm If the VIX goes below 12, option traders are too bullish, so you can consider selling stocks The S&P 500 could be near a top 3 Hint: 98 percent of the time, the VIX falls between 10 and 45, and when it is outside of this range, it is almost always on the high side 4 Note: These are not actionable trades, but only guidelines Always use other indicators to confirm before buying or selling
THE BACK STORY
Launched in 1993 by the CBOE, the purpose of the VIX was to measure volatility for the S&P 500 stock index The idea was intriguing: When stocks go down, option volatility (the VIX) goes up as more option traders buy puts to protect their stock portfolios, as an alternative to shorting, or to speculate The VIX captured the imagination of the public because it was such an easy indicator to follow Many believe it has the power to predict the market s future, and since its launch, it has had good buy signals,
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