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Reverse Psychology
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but the old saying Look to buy when the VIX is high is not a slam dunk
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Technically, the VIX tracks the implied volatility of options in the S&P 500 As mentioned previously, implied volatility can be a confusing concept to some people For our purposes, tracking the VIX gives you useful insights into what options traders think will happen Usually, a huge spike in the VIX will alert you to a short-term bottom or oversold condition Many traders find it useful to put the VIX on a chart and compare it to how the market reacted in the past With one glance at a chart, you can see extreme spikes Remember, the higher the VIX goes, the more fear there is in the options market As with other sentiment indicators, the VIX works as a contrarian indicator Therefore, as the VIX shoots higher because panicked option traders buy more puts for protection, you ought to consider doing the opposite (that is, you ought to consider buying stocks or call options)
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Unfortunately, although the VIX can identify emotional extremes, it has not always been a great timing indicator Although it can alert you that a reversal is possible, it won t tell you when It is the kind of indicator that can be checked each week for clues, but don t expect it to reveal more than you already know Nevertheless, it is extremely useful to short-term traders, who often plot it on a chart with moving averages to generate buy and sell signals Short-Term Trading Strategies If you re a short-term trader, there are a number of signals you can look for in the VIX: 1 Plot the VIX on a chart with moving averages (eg, 150-day moving average) as support and resistance
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ALL ABOUT MARKET INDICATORS
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2 Plot the 10-day moving average on a chart If the VIX spikes approximately 20 percent over its 10-day moving average, this could be a buy signal Conversely, if the VIX drops well below the 10-day moving average, this could be a sell signal 3 If you are an options trader, you can use the VIX as a guide when to sell covered calls When the VIX is low and the market is calm with a slight bullish bias, it could be a good time to sell covered calls 4 Short sellers watch the VIX to monitor investor nervousness
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After reading about sentiment indicators, you may already be thinking differently about the market I hope so, because that was one of the goals of this book After all, many people are surprised that going against the crowd can be profitable Before you learn about the next set of indicators, I d like to formally introduce you to my first guest, recognized economist and author Bernard Baumohl Fortunately, he stopped by to explain how he uses a variety of economic indicators to make market forecasts If you are a trader or investor, it s essential you monitor economic conditions, and Baumohl will show you how
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BERNARD BAUMOHL: USING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Baumohl s Favorite Economic Indicators 1 2 3 4 5 6 Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Employment numbers Unemployment rate Payroll surveys Cass Freight Index American Association of Railroads report
According to many traders and investors, economic indicators not only provide insights on the current state of the economy and where it s been but also offer valuable clues on where it s head-
Reverse Psychology
ing That s why certain economic reports, once released to the public, often cause sudden and violent swings in values in stocks, bonds, and currencies Therefore, informed traders and investors keep a particularly close eye on forward-looking economic reports Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, confirms how important it is to include economic indicators in your trading or investing toolbox Economic indicators can foretell if we re stumbling into recession or about to experience a vigorous growth, Baumohl says Knowing where the economy stands in the business cycle at any point in time is essential if one is to achieve a profitable return on an investment Not only do these indicators help you decide whether to invest but also what to invest in cash, stocks, or bonds and where the US, Europe, Japan, or the emerging countries He distinguishes between short-term traders and long-term investors, but both groups will find valuable clues in the economic reports
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