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There is one group of indicators, however, Baumohl has placed above all others in importance: the three that foreshadow consumer spending He explains: No measure is more important than jobs If people have a sense of job security and feel upbeat about future income growth, they will likely spend more Secondly, when household wealth increases which occurs when the value of their assets rises more than their personal liabilities people will feel more
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comfortable about shopping And finally, if your take-home pay increases faster than inflation, you have greater purchasing power, and this will also encourage you to spend more All of these indicators come out on a regular basis and should be closely followed
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Baumohl believes it s not difficult to put the economic indicators together and come up with an understanding of where the economy is headed It takes a little time to learn how to interpret economic statistics, but you don t need a PhD in economics or math to do so, he says What you need above all is good judgment Economics is more about what people think and do
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Bernard Baumohl is chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group He began his career as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank specializing in international affairs Baumohl later served as an economist at European American Bank with responsibilities to monitor the global economy and develop forecasts Baumohl was also an award-winning economics reporter with Time magazine, who covered the news from New York, Washington, London, and Jerusalem Apart from his role as chief global economist, Baumohl also teaches at the New York Institute of Finance and is an economics commentator on Public Television s Nightly Business Report Baumohl is the author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities (Wharton School Publishing, 2nd edition) The bestselling book is the winner of the Readers Preference Editor s Choice Award for Finance and has been translated into several languages WHAT S NEXT
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If this is the first time you ve learned about market indicators, you might be either overwhelmed or eager to continue If overwhelmed, don t worry, because the more you learn about indicators, the easier it gets For those eager to go on, I ll now introduce you to the set of market indicators that I call By the Numbers
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The next set of market indicators is favored by those who like to
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count These indicators monitor the market primarily by displaying a running tally, such as which stocks are advancing or declining, or which have reached new highs or new lows These indicators are deceptively easy to use Although they give you absolute numbers, interpreting the numbers correctly can be a challenge And now, I d like to introduce you to a favorite of many traders and investors: New High New Low
NEW HIGH-NEW LOW
Name: New High New Low Where to find: wwwstockchartscom, almost any chart program, and in most financial newspapers Symbol: $USHL if using StockChartscom* (NYSE and Nasdaq combined) Note: You can also use $NYHL (for NYSE) or $NAHL (Nasdaq) Time period: Variable
*If you re using StockChartscom, you enter a $ before the symbol, but this could vary among different chart programs Ask your brokerage firm for the symbol it uses
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The Lighter Side: New High New Low, which I nicknamed The Runners, measures stocks that are making new highs or new lows The goal is to advance to the front so they can be added to the new high list Those that fail to make it get sent to the new low list
WHAT NEW HIGH NEW LOW DOES
The New High New Low indicator tracks stocks that are making new highs or new lows for a specified time period
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