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calculation looks more at smaller size stocks than larger size ones In other words, when the Advance-Decline Line increases to a higher low, while the S&P 500 makes a new low, it means that money is probably moving from large caps into small caps, which indicates that risk taking is back in the markets, and the markets could move higher Conversely, if the Advance-Decline Line makes a lower high while the S&P 500 makes a new high, it means that money is probably going into large caps, which is a sign of unwillingness to take new risk The market might pull back down Finally, a number of traders have turned to short-term trading tools such as the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, briefly explained in 12, for more reliable signals Traders usually use this momentum oscillator with the McClellan Summation Index For a daily list of advances and declines, as well as charts of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index, go to wwwmcoscillatorcom, and select Market Breadth from the main menu Tom McClellan, owner of the above Web site, is the son of Sherman and Marian McClellan His parents originally developed the McClellan Oscillator and the Summation Index in 1969, based on the work of P N Haurlan, a real rocket scientist McClellan continued the work his parents started He explains that the McClellan Oscillator is not going to tell you something different from the Advance-Decline Line But it will give you more in-depth information so you ll know the complete story Unfortunately, he says, not everyone fully understands how to use the oscillator If all you do is look at the numerical value of the McClellan Oscillator, McClellan says, you re ignoring 99 percent of the most useful information If all you know is the number, you don t know what the trend is It s like forecasting the weather by only knowing the current temperature That would be a very limited way of forecasting Therefore, you can only use the McClellan Oscillator if you understand its value relative to yesterday or last week The key to understanding it, he says, is looking at it on a chart
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Although the McClellan Oscillator can take some time to learn, it enhances the information received from the AdvanceDecline Line Basically, when the 19-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 39-day EMA, the McClellan Oscillator will generate a negative value It means that declining issues are stronger than advancing issues Conversely, if the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, the McClellan Oscillator will generate a positive value It means that advancing issues are stronger than declining issues
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As we continue on, you might be making a list of your favorite indicators Over time, you ll take the indicators you like best and practice with them in real life And now, I d like to introduce my next guest, well-known trader, bestselling author, and creator of numerous indicators, Larry Williams I m sure you ll enjoy reading about two of his passions: trading and creating more indicators
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LARRY WILLIAMS: CREATOR, WILLIAMS %R AND UL TIMATE OSCILLATOR
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Larry Williams, a prolific author and trader, is best known in the trading community for creating two well-known market indicators, Williams %R and the Ultimate Oscillator (Note: A chart of Williams %R is located in 12) It was back in the 1960s when he created his first indicator There weren t very many indicators then, Williams recalls So I looked at other indicators and wondered if there was another way of skinning that cat I had ideas and insights about the market and wondered how I could express those things When you stay up late and drink some wine, it s amazing what your mind comes up with There were few traders in those days, he remembers There wasn t a CNBC, and we got the Wall Street Journal a few days late But people wondered why I was living in a nice house and driving
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