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Let s Get Technical
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When using indicators such as RSI and Stochastics, continue to practice and experiment until you find a combination of settings that not only makes sense to you but could also lead to actionable trades Bestselling author and trader Toni Turner put it this way: Indicators are like different instruments playing in a symphony orchestra Although all of the instruments are different, when you listen to them, they all come out as a musical piece But if even one of the instruments is playing out of tune, that is a signal you should pay attention to
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Before you leave this chapter, I d like to introduce you to my next guest, Dr Van Tharp, a trading coach and author who developed a number of indicators that help traders use psychology to understand the stock market As you ll find out, he says your success as a trader depends on how well you know yourself
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DR VAN THARP: CREATOR, ATR% AND SYSTEM QUALITY NUMBER THE ATR% INDICATOR
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Before Dr Van Tharp s career as a psychologist, author, trading coach, and Market Wizard, he was a neurolinguistic programmer (NLP) modeler For 25 years, he has been applying his research about NLP modeling to help traders think differently about the way they approach the market Each month, he monitors market volatility and direction I measure the volatility of the S&P 500 defined by a rolling 20-day average true range (ATR) as a percentage of the close, which I call ATR%, he says The mean of all of these 20-day windows over the last 60 years is about 131 percent, and the standard deviation is 072 percent When the ATR% is more than three standard deviations above the mean, he considers the market to be very volatile This extreme
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ALL ABOUT MARKET INDICATORS
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volatility only occurs in bear markets, he explains When the ATR% is between +05 and +3 standard deviations, the market is volatile When the ATR% is between +05 and 05 standard deviations, the market has normal volatility When the ATR% is less than 05 standard deviations, then the market is in quiet mode As a rule, he says, bull markets tend to range from quiet to volatile, and bear markets tend to be normal to very volatile
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THE SYSTEM QUALITY NUMBER INDICATOR
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He also created an indicator that looks at the daily percent changes in the S&P 500 Index over the last 100 days using a proprietary technical indicator he calls the System Quality Number (SQN) (Note: A chart of SQN is located in 12) I developed the SQN to measure how well trading systems perform, but I discovered I could also use it effectively to monitor what the market is doing, Tharp explains For the last 60 years, he says, the market SQNs have ranged from +5, which is extremely bullish, to 2 The negative numbers don t get as big because the SQN algorithm takes into account the variability of the market, which is always high in bear markets Although this might seem complicated to many people, he says that you can know the market type by just consulting a chart: I use the market SQN as an indicator because I measure it every day, if I want to The market SQN, however, is not meant to tell traders when to get in and out of the market It s meant as a warning that you need different types of trading systems for different market conditions Tharp says that it s easy for anyone to develop a trading system for a single type of market Some buy-and-hold strategies worked well for growth stocks in the late 1990s dot-com bull market, he says Unfortunately, when the bubble burst in 2000, people lost a lot of money holding onto stocks for the following few years Buy and hold works great in certain market conditions, but it produces losses in other market conditions
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