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The after party was quite entertaining, especially the free food and drinks I got a closer look at the models, most over six feet tall without high heels I gingerly approached one of the models Do you think your hemline can help me predict what the stock market will do Where are you from she asked without smiling At the moment, from Mars That s nice, she replied, looking away My assistant called again The factory manager said they had a really bad year If the Cardboard Box indicator was accurate, the economy was going down I was confused Which indicator was correct: hemlines or boxes How many boxes did you count Two hundred so far, she replied Two hundred That s all You re mean, she said, and hung up To find out more about the Hemline Index, I spoke to Stephanie Solomon, a Bloomingdale s buyer and authority on women s fashion She told me some heartbreaking news The Hemline Index is a silly myth that has outlived its usefulness, she said You mean the indicator is dead I asked I hope so, Solomon quickly replied She explained that the length of a woman s hemline has little to do with the economy or the stock market Back in the 1920s, hemline length was based on how much fabric was available, and not on the shopper s mood or desire to take risks I asked her if the bright and bold new designs at the fashion show meant that the economy was improving Perhaps this was a leading indicator Those are only trends, she explained, just like high or low hemlines, and people will always purchase trends It never falters But there is no correlation between trends and what is going on in the economy
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ALL ABOUT MARKET INDICATORS
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Is there anything in fashion that will help you make economic forecasts I asked Absolutely, she said, but you have to follow price During a recession, if you don t have a lot of money, you ll buy the lowest price in the color of the moment And when the economy is flush, you ll buy the same color but spend more money She says that fashion insiders also know it s a recession because women stop buying designer clothes By the time I got home that night, I realized that financial reporters have to stop writing about the fun but insignificant Hemline Index, which has now become unfashionable Fortunately, I thought of a replacement, which I m calling the Fashion Indicator How does it work Rather than study trends such as hemlines or color schemes, you watch shoppers, analyze clothes prices, and talk to designers for insights into how much money is being spent It takes more investigative work but it s much more useful When designer labels become popular and people spend more money on clothes, it could be a very good year for the economy I can t wait to test out my new indicator at the next fashion show Now that the Hemline Index is no longer valid, perhaps the Fashion Indicator can predict which way the economy is headed I ll keep you updated on the results
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My next guest, prominent investor, Forbes columnist, and bestselling author Ken Fisher, stopped by to talk about what he learned from a lifetime of dueling with the stock market He will also shed some light on an indicator he created, the Price/Sales Ratio, favored by many investors
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KEN FISHER: CREATOR, PRICE/SALES RATIO BEATING THE GREAT HUMILIATOR
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One of the problems with indicators is that they don t always work in every market; even more frustrating, they sometimes stop working altogether The lesson, says Forbes columnist and author Ken Fisher, is this: the market constantly changes, and so do indicators The nature of capital markets is that things keep morphing, Fisher explains The market is analogous to a near-living spiritual entity that I refer to as the Great Humiliator, he quips It exists for one purpose and one purpose only: to humiliate as many people as possible for as many dollars as possible over the longest time period as possible Therefore, Fisher suggests, your goal is to try to minimize the degree to which you re humiliated: And the only way to do that is to keep changing with the Great Humiliator He says that many people have dug their feet in the sand and refuse to change their methods But my preference is to try and keep coming up with new things Because in my industry if you re right 65 percent of the time, you become a legend but it also means you could be wrong 35 percent of the time, which is a lot Fisher also says you have to be careful about making hardand-fast rules For example, he says you could make a rule to buy above a stock s 200-day moving average and sell when it s below its 200-day moving average But it s not that simple The goal is to change with the world and come up with new ideas that other people haven t figured out yet, he says This also includes coming up with new market indicators There are a thousand indicators, Fisher suggests All of these indicators have a time when they work and a time when they don t work If you apply one set of indicators all of the time, you will by definition run hot and cold Fisher has tried out many technical indicators and found many inconsistencies: Most technical indicators not all, but most tend to work sometimes and not work other times The key, he says, is to use them in conjunction with other methods: You could look at MACD, which shows an oversold
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