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Hickey s Favorite Indicators 1 Investors Intelligence 2 CBOE Put/Call Ratio 3 Mutual Funds Cash Levels
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DON T FIGHT THE FED
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Fred Hickey put out a timely crash alert to his newsletter subscribers three months before the massive September 2008 crash, when the Dow ultimately fell below 6,500 A few years earlier, he complained in his newsletter that the economy had begun to deteriorate In 2007, however, it was impossible for Hickey to ignore what was happening The Bear Stearns collapse had occurred, housing inventories were up to an 18-year high, and prices were declining, Hickey says Mortgage brokers like Countrywide were laying off tens of thousands of people The collapse was occurring in the economy, and no one was paying any attention to it In addition, the weapons of financial destruction, derivatives, had begun to detonate The credit markets had seized up, he says, ticking off a number of economic statistics that pointed to a possible crash
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ALL ABOUT MARKET INDICATORS
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What sidetracked many people, Hickey says, was the belief that the eight-member Federal Reserve (Fed) was omnipotent When the Fed cut rates, the market celebrated People were euphoric, believing a rate cut would save them On TV, financial commentators were hooting and hollering, calling for another rate cut, Hickey remembers They thought the stock market would be immune As long as the Fed was there, they believed the stock market would rally When the Fed surprised the market by cutting rates again, the same commentators called it a miracle, a gift from heaven, and the greatest central bank on earth One CNBC commentator was telling people to put their money into the Four Horsemen, including Google, at over $700 a share When you write BUY GOOG on your knuckles, that should give you some sense we re in trouble, he quips According to Hickey, many pros depend on the individual investors to fuel rallies Some of the antics you see are designed to lure greater fools with new money and short memories into the market Meanwhile, after the Fed cut rates, Google went even higher, even though it had missed its July numbers It missed its numbers because Internet traffic had started to slow, Hickey says And the biggest advertisers were from mortgage companies, who were going to get killed And yet, they were on TV telling people to buy these high-priced tech stocks even after the fundamentals were rolling over Hickey is not a big fan of the Fed, which he believes has been irresponsible These are mostly Ivy League educated economists, but they never get it right, he says Fed chairman Greenspan said it wasn t possible to identify bubbles, and yet there was this gigantic housing bubble that was obvious not just to me but to many people Economists came out and said not to worry because the Fed had cut rates from 6 percent to 1 percent But it didn t matter in the end He believes that the Fed members keep getting it wrong because they rely too heavily on their economic models, which never seem to come up with the right answer It s common sense versus economic modeling, Hickey says I was hitting my head against the wall Why couldn t they see bubbles imploding all over
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Fred Hickey: The Contrarian
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the place Meanwhile, the Fed was supplying all this liquidity into the market by cutting rates lower and lower Hickey saw many similarities between 2007 and 2000 According to market lore, you re not supposed to fight the Fed, but I knew it was time History told me that The Fed was not omnipotent in 1930, they weren t omnipotent in 2000, and they weren t omnipotent in 2007 I think it s very important to understand history These patterns do reoccur, but not always in the same way They are always a little different And just as in the past, people thought he was insane for fighting the Fed It wasn t just the crazies taunting me on the phone and singing songs, he says Legitimate people also called me and said, The Fed will never allow the stock market to fall because the consequences will be so awful Stocks are destined to go higher The Fed is too powerful Resistance is futile
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