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Trading Psychologist Brett Steenbarger and Psychiatrist Alexander Elder
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When the smoke cleared, LTCM had lost a staggering $5 billion in less than a year, leaving it with only $200 million to $300 million in equity, according to press reports The professors, who ironically had designed their computer models to minimize risk, were probably shocked at how it all unraveled so quickly Although LTCM s meltdown occurred in 1998, what happened to it is a case study in risk mismanagement In fact, a number of universities include LTCM as part of the curriculum Business students study the hedge fund s collapse and identify the mistakes, as well as the lessons that can be learned One of the lessons: No matter how brilliant the system, there are unexpected events that can force the crowd to extremes and play havoc with your models The professors learned the hard way that the stock market is not a mathematical experiment, or game, that performs as efficiently in real life as in the laboratory If you want to learn more details about the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management, read When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein
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My next guest is Dr Alexander Elder, a seasoned trader, psychiatrist, and bestselling author, who was introduced earlier ( 2) He ll discuss the indicator he created, the Force Index, in addition to sharing his ideas about the proper ways to use market indicators
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DR ALEXANDER ELDER: CREATOR, FORCE INDEX HOW THE FORCE INDEX WORKS
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Dr Alexander Elder believes in simplicity, which is why he limits himself to only a handful of indicators Most people s charts are very cluttered, Elder says I have a rule that I have only five bullets to a clip A trader is allowed only five indicators If you are really desperate, you can have six But if you have seven, that is a problem The indicators Elder uses to monitor the overall market are MACD lines and histograms, moving averages, and envelopes He
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ALL ABOUT MARKET INDICATORS
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also uses the Force Index, which he developed, to track individual stocks To me, the Force Index is the best indicator of volume It brings volume to life Looking at a bar chart of volume does not speak to me or to many other people The Force Index turns those bars into a legible message (Note: A chart of the Force Index is located in 12) The Force Index works by combining three key factors, Elder says The direction of price change, the extent of the price change, and the amount of volume that it took to accomplish the price change The raw Force Index for any day equals price change times volume The greater the price change or the volume, the greater the Force Index The Force Index can be positive or negative, depending on the direction of the market Then we take this raw number and average it over a period of time His favorite parameters are the 13-day moving average for long-term trends and the 2-day moving average for short-term timing
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Elder includes his main indicators on every chart combined with templates that cover the major time periods: weekly, daily, and intraday For example, he likes to put envelopes, parallel lines above and below an exponential moving average, on his daily charts If the prices are hitting the upper envelope, I will not buy, no matter how attractive it appears Occasionally, I will miss an up move because it will continue to have an upside breakout Since most breakouts are false, Elder says, he feels comfortable missing out on these setups You cannot win every time When prices hit the upper envelope, they are overvalued They can continue to go higher, but I m not buying I m a value trader I aim to buy below value and sell above value Each of his indicators serves a different purpose If you have a slow and steady uptrend, moving averages are perfect But in a slow and steady trend, MACD stops working because it catches market swings So I have learned over the years to recognize these factors When a market is in a certain stage, certain indicators work better They won t deliver magic, but they can tell you about probabilities
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