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Meanwhile, as a result of this minicrash, new rules were proposed to level the playing field For many Wall Street oldtimers, it probably feels like d j vu Although a flash crash is a relatively rare event, the promised reforms never seem to get past the various financial committees In 2010, however, the SEC and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) issued a joint report blaming the Flash Crash on a computerized trading program that automatically sold 35,000 e-mini S&P 500 futures contracts Eventually, new regulations will most likely be enacted, probably after the next crash Ironically, it makes many yearn for the days when market makers and specialists controlled order flow, and the bid-ask spread was in fractions, not decimals In the opinion of this author, the last thing the market needs is the perception that a Wizard of Oz character is manipulating the markets behind the scenes The sooner regulations are passed to make the markets fair for retail investors, the better
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My next guest, William J O Neil, bestselling author and founder of Investor s Business Daily, stopped by to share some of the lessons he has learned about being a successful trader and investor
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William J O Neil, chairman and founder of Investor s Business Daily and Investorscom, has made a career of correctly anticipating stock market direction When he first became interested in the stock market in the 1960s, he spent two years studying and researching how to be a successful trader Because he had done his homework, he identified signals that a powerful bull market was about to begin As a result, O Neil turned $5,000 into $250,000 with a trio of exceptional trades He continued studying the market, eventually using what he learned about indicators to launch Investor s Business Daily The first book I read that helped me was The Battle for Investment Survival by Gerald Loeb, O Neil recalls Loeb was a tape reader He made $2 million pyramiding in Montgomery Ward while he was a young broker at EF Hutton I also met with him several times
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O Neil was also influenced by the market experiences of legendary trader Jesse Livermore as well as fund manager Jack Dreyfus Jack was a chartist, O Neil recalls While he was active with his mutual fund, he did not use analysts but instead posted large oversized daily charts and had ticker tapes in every room of his office He was always on top of the market action no matter where he was
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O Neil has advice for investors who are using market indicators: Most investors like to follow different indicators, when in reality there is only one general market indicator we have found, cycle after cycle, to be dependable In the stock market, three out of four stocks will decline when the major market indicators correct These are the indicators we use to tell us when the general market is about to go south They measure the general market more precisely Before he discovered the one market indicator that he believed was the most reliable, he analyzed all the different indicators known at that time O Neil notes that they created the method many years ago after testing and throwing out virtually all other technical market indicators, which can work from time to time, but not on a consistent basis What he learned works best is following a daily chart that shows price and volume, day by day, of the major market indexes A market top starts when one index runs into a four- or five-week period where there are five or more days of volume distribution, or selling, says O Neil This may sound new to most investors, but it is virtually impossible for the general market to go into an intermediate-term or bear market correction without this happening The indicator he uses primarily follows the actions of large institutions He explains it in more detail: We only count a distribution day when one of these indexes closes down two-tenths of a percent or more from the day before on heavier volume, he says, and you can see an accumulation of five different days over a four- or five-week period This historically has resulted in the market rolling over into a correction His indicator is 80 to 90 percent accurate, O Neil maintains It will take some time to learn what you re looking for, and the
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