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Writing a comprehensive book on market timing would not be
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possible without the expertise and involvement of many individuals and firms Even with their assistance, I take full responsibility for any inadvertent factual errors in the book The following individuals provided significant input, and to them I first want to offer special thanks: Herb Weissman devoted many pain-staking hours reviewing, editing and providing critical input to the manuscript His clarity makes this a more readable book Robert W Colby, CMT and author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, provided the use of his research on timing strategies from his landmark book, as well as provided critical comments on the manuscript Nelson Freeburg, editor and publisher of FORMULA RESEARCH provided the use of his research on calendarbased and presidential cycle strategies and insights on the subject of back testing Sy Harding, Sy Harding s Street Smart Report, President, Asset Management Research Corp, shared extensive information on his seasonal timing system using the MACD indicator Paul Merriman, President, Merriman Capital Management, wrote the foreword and whose firm provided market-timing insights, research and commentary Stephen Isaacs, Executive Editor, McGraw-Hill, and his talented team, for their guidance and assistance in the editing and publishing process I also want to thank the following organizations and individuals for their assistance, expertise, and information provided: Active Trader magazine and Mark Etzkorn, Editor-in-Chief DecisionPointcom and Carl Swenlin, founder and publisher
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Hays Advisory Group, LLC, and Don R Hays, President and Mark Dodson The Hirsch Organization and Stock Traders Almanac and Jeffrey A Hirsch, President and Judd Brown, Vice President Investor s Intelligence and Michael L Burke, Editor and John E Gray, President David Korn s Advisory Service and David Korn Merriman Capital Management and Dennis Tilley, Director of Research The MoniResearch Newsletter and Steve Shellans, President Prudential Securities Incorporated and Dr Edward Yardeni Rydex Global Advisors, Inc and Anna Haglund, Public Relations and Communications Manager Schreiner Capital Management, Inc and Roger J Schreiner, President StockChartscom and Kellie Erlandson Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES and Jack K Hutson, Publisher Theta Investment Research, LLC and Paul J Montgomery, President Timer Digest and James Schmidt, Editor and Publisher Towneley Capital Management, Inc, and Wesley G McCain, Chairman, and Gretchen Hartman UBS Americas and Karen C Hess, Media Relations ULTRA Financial Systems Inc and Steve Hunter, President VectorVest, Inc, and Dr Bart A DiLiddo, Chairman and CEO, and also Linda Royer, and Mark Blake TradeStation (Registered trademark of the TradeStation Group Inc) and Michael Burke, Product Manager
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If you don t know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out
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your investments get crushed in the last stock market crash No, not in 1929 in 2000 to 2002 Most investors got a rude awakening when they opened their year-end statements for each of the past three years because 2000 to 2002 was only the second time in history that the market was down three years in a row Are you confused by the daily gyrations of the stock market Are you upset that you lost a bundle in the past three years Are you ready to give up on the stock market, and cash in at any price If so, then join the club, since almost everyone is in the same boat The talking heads on the business shows continually profess a bullish stance, no matter what the market is doing Ignore their opinions No one knows where the market is going tomorrow, let alone in the months and years further down the road Just because the stock market has averaged an annual return of nearly 102 percent since 1926 does not mean that you can expect that rate of return to continue in the coming year or the next 5 years Just because you may not be retiring soon does not mean that you can afford to ignore what is going on in the stock market If you have been investing since 1982, or perhaps since early 1995, you were probably ecstatic with your returns through the first quarter of 2000 Since then, the market has dramatically and swiftly reversed direction, and it has dropped faster than it rose Did you sell at or near the top and put the proceeds into cash You probably did not Did you sell after your stocks or mutual funds fell 10 percent, then 20 percent, then 30 percent, and perhaps 90 percent in some cases Probably not, since you thought the market would come back, as it always has Perhaps you followed the widely touted buy-and-hold approach And if you are like most investors, you have no game
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