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TradeStation Strategy Performance Report VL4% Daily 20 dma (12/23/1992-11/29/2002)
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Net Profit Gross Profit Gross Loss Percent profitable Ratio avg win/avg loss Annual Rate of Return Return on Initial Capital Return on Max Drawdown Buy/Hold return Cumulative return
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179 207 $2,51996 $14,15907 Avg trade 1 STDEV Coefficient of variation $16,67903 / ($11,63911) 56188% $134,86581 $10,28926 $18,07072 Max Run-up Date Avg trade 1 STDEV Coefficient of variation 7/24/2002 $28,35998 / $000 17563% ($30,80016) ($3,07254) $4,08341 Max Drawdown Date Avg trade 1 STDEV Coefficient of variation 9/30/2002 $000 / ($7,15595) 13290% 1846 1308 Total Trades Profit/Loss $375,97855 $000 375,97855 6 0 6 Net Prft/Max Drawdown Adj Net Prft/Max Drawdown 1694 1200
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Number of total trades Average trade 1 Std Deviation (STDEV)
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Maximum Run-up Average Run-up 1 Std Deviation (STDEV)
Drawdown
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Reward/Risk Ratios
Net Prft/Largest Loss Adj Net Prft/Largest Loss
Outlier Trades
Positive outliers Negative outliers
Total outliers
Created with TradeStation Printed with permission
FIGURE
10 4
Equity ($)
VL4% VLAI Daily Strategy Using 20-dma July 2001 - November 2002
Equity Curve MovAge Crossover
0 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 Trade Number
20 30
Created with TradeStation Printed with permission
Equity
Peaks
The Value Line 4 Percent Strategy
tion, the index can be found in The Wall Street Journal, Investor s Business Daily, and on many of Web sites previously mentioned and in the end-of-book bibliography The simplest approach is to obtain the Friday closing price and compare it to the previous high and low to determine if a 4 percent signal is given Use a one-year weekly chart to pinpoint the last high and low price close Another approach is to write down the most recent VLAI high and low price Then calculate 4 percent from each level, wait for that price to be hit, and then take action Just watch the daily financial papers or check the Net daily If possible, you should put in your market order on the day of the signal If you can watch the market on Fridays at around 3:30 PM EST, check the VLAI price If it looks that the signal will be given that day, put in your buy or sell order that afternoon Otherwise, you will get the Monday night s close, where the price could have advanced further in the direction of your signal Print a chart of the VLAI, place your targeted buy and sell signals on it and wait for the signals to be triggered to place your trade Or if you have software such as TradeStation or MetaStock, you can probably program in the VL4% strategy and run the program weekly or daily, whatever your preference, and wait until a signal is automatically generated The market can move 5 to 20 percent, either up or down, for or against you, within a particular week or month That movement may result in your getting out of the market on a Friday (or the following Monday) with a larger loss than you had planned for That s to be expected because you can t be perfect all the time, and the chances of such a large move occurring within a single week is very rare But to prevent a large loss you should always use a stoploss order around 8 to 10 percent below your trade execution price Of course, it is up to you to select the percentage loss you are willing to tolerate Be sure you cut your losses quickly; otherwise small losses can turn into big losses Of course, if you are long when the market jumps 5 to 30 percent or short or in cash when it falls by the same amount, then you reap the rewards, since you were on the right side of the market at the right time Using daily prices instead of weekly prices will pro-
MARKET-TIMING STRATEGIES
vide a quicker buy and sell signal, and as we saw, it can produce higher profits and minimize any potential intra-week losses
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