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ters but how we do in the bad times, I think they ll see timing is a valuable tool It s just a question of whether they want to do it themselves or whether they want someone to do it for them
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Paul Merriman, founder and president of Merriman Capital Management Inc, The Value Line No-Load Fund Advisor, Interview with Paul Merriman May, 1995
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Some investors may neither be interested in timing the market for themselves, using the market-timing strategies presented in this book or elsewhere, or using a market-timing newsletter to get their timing signals The last alternative is to hire a market-timing investment advisor to actually make the buy and sell decisions in the investor s account under a limited power of attorney In that case, the question becomes who to hire The MoniResearch Newsletter For those investors seeking to engage a market timer to manage their mutual fund investments, there is an unbiased source of information that has been offering audited performance statistics on market timers since March 1986 That service is called The MoniResearch Newsletter, edited and published by Steve Shellans, who has actually been tracking market timers for 22 years Shellans earned a BS degree from MIT, and an MS degree in computer science from the Stevens Institute of Technology He has more than 30 years of investment experience Shellans accepts no fees from timers that he measures nor does he receive any remuneration from them based on the amount of business generated for them by the newsletter He does, however, charge every timer a fixed annual tracking fee of $275 According to Shellans, the performance data in his newsletter is factual, impartial and unbiased He will not track any firm he does not trust About 100 market timers are covered with alternating newsletter issues tracking classic market timers and dynamic asset allocators in the six newsletters published a year Classic market timers invest in US equity mutual funds when they receive their buy signals, and they invest in money market funds when they get sell signals from their timing models On the other hand, dynamic asset allocators invest in a mix of asset classes such as domestic and international
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Market-Timing Resources Newsletters, Web Sites, and Advisors
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stocks, bonds, or gold This strategy is basically a diversified play on the market to take advantage of the changing environment MoniResearch tracks neither market-timing newsletters nor market-timing hotline services but only professional timers who manage actual client funds and permit access to client statements for audit performance purposes by MoniResearch All performance data shown in the newsletter for each timer is net of their management fees So it is a true representation of actual performance There are no theoretical or back-tested performance numbers in this newsletter Most of the timers covered by Shellans invest only in mutual funds, and mostly in no-load funds, but some new timers have been added that time the ETFs That means that the investor who decides to engage one of the timers would set up an account (to buy and sell mutual funds) with his own investment or brokerage firm or directly with the fund family (for example, Rydex or ProFunds); he would then provide the timer with trading authority (limited power of attorney) over the account The timer has no ability to take funds out of the account, because the account is owned by the investor A few firms operate as hedge funds or limited partnerships, and investors who participate in these do not own their own account funds are commingled In most cases, the classic timers use a proprietary timing model and the firm will only give investors a general idea as to what factors are used to determine their buy and sell signals Therefore, it is critically important to check the track record of performance over the longest time period available as well as during the most recent years Refer to Table 12-2 from the November/December MoniResearch Newsletter to see the performance statistics for the March 2002 Quarter and for one-, two-, three- and five-year periods, for timers who use only Rydex, ProFunds, or Potomac Funds as their investment vehicles As you recall, these funds were set up specifically for market timers The ending date of the measurement period was September 30, 2002, exactly nine days before the low for the year As you scan the table, you will note that some timers are listed more than once This is because they had more than one portfolio measured by the newsletter For the one-year period ending September 30, 2002, of the 32 timer portfolios measured, 22 percent (7 portfolios) did worse than the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (dividends reinvested) These indexes were
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Performance Fund Family Used Style Annualized Actual Rydex ProFunds 5-yr 3-yr L=long, Sh=Short, Sc=Sectors, B=Bonds, G=Gold 2-yr 1-yr 3Q 2002 Ulcer Index (Risk) Notes 70 16 79 -30 Not Sc 192* 247 129 435 236 218 205 199 173 94 03 1071 441 744 691 2, 8 12 51 avail 55 219* 149 B Sc, G 45 115 05 102 Sc 35 3, 9 35 101* 90 01 11 93 34 30 340 142 98 26* 638 93 333 579 3 3 3, 4 3, 7 1, 8 are Listed Alphabetically L, Sh L L All L, Sh, L, Sh L, Sh, L, Sh, All G L, Sh, 61 157 See 59 233* 118 197 256 198 86 129 83 87 Note -38 61 122* 60 25 54 295 91
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