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As you use the model for analysis, you will reach a time when you need to have different scenarios run through the model in order to test the possible outcomes given changes in your forecast assumptions Usually, there are three types of scenarios that you would want to look at: the base case, the high case, and the low case It is not critical that we change every account in the model for the three scenarios We need only to look at the main accounts that most affect the model s outcomes In our model, there are only seven such accounts, called drivers:
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Sales COGS SGA Accounts receivable Inventory Capital expenditures Accounts payable
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These seven drivers set a company s profitability and cash needs The simplest arrangement is for all seven to move in tandem following one setting, called a toggle, and that is what the following illustration will show If you want to have more possibilities, you can set seven toggles, one for each of the drivers, so that you can get permutations of combinations (base case on sales, but high case on COGS, low case on SGA, etc) From an analysis point of view, however, this may be overdoing things Remember, the numbers we are working with are assumptions, and there is very little to gain from putting in details that go beyond a broad-brush approach In the basic model, each one of the drivers has more than one input row, so as we develop scenarios, we should have the same number of rows Here are the steps we must follow in order to have the scenario feature We will be making these changes in the Input sheet, where each of the driver outputs will be calculated
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Bells and Whistles
The resulting outputs will flow as before to the output sheets (IS, BS, etc), so we won t need to make any changes on those sheets 1 Set a cell that is the toggle 2 Insert extra rows above each of the driver accounts 3 Change the formula that reads the inputs so that it reads three scenario inputs based on the toggle setting Set a Cell That Is the Toggle
A B C D E F G
1 First Corporation 2 Scenario 3 4 INCOME STATEMENT 5 6 Revenues 7 Percent growth % 8 Revenues 9 10 COGS 11 As % revenues 12 COGS 13 Gross profit 14 Gross margin 15 Input 8250 Na 8250 4500 545% 4500 3750 455% 9000 91% 9000 4900 544% 4900 4100 456% 1,0000 111% 1,0000 5500 550% 5500 4500 450% 550% 6050 4950 450% 550% 6655 5445 450% 550% 7321 5990 450% 100% 1,1000 100% 1,2100 100% 1,3310 1 Proj 2000 2001 2002 2003 Proj 2004 Proj 2005
Here is the top section of the Input sheet Let s select the cell B2 as the input cell and type the label next to it We can also put a yellow shading to the cell (or whatever color you have been using to indicate an input cell) Insert Extra Rows Above Each of the Driver Accounts We will insert two more lines so that there are three growth percentage input rows, one for each of the scenario cases The additional rows will be only for the forecast periods, since the historical periods do not need any alternative set of numbers (Historical data are historical data) We could ponder here whether we need to double up to have three couples of input rows, with each having a row for
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hard-coded inputs and a row for the percentage growths This would be nice to have only if you were certain that you would be using this model to replicate another model s (precalculated) scenario numbers For our model, however, we will keep to a simple design Here is what the screen will look like, just for the revenues section:
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