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Top Five Newspapers Total EBITDA Market cap Multiple of EBITDA
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Source: Company financials via Yahoo! Finance:
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Google $58 billion $1585 billion 2742
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$55 billion $375 billion 687
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There are many factors that may justify an increase or decrease in a company s multiple relative to the industry s typical multiple An example of multiples increasing occurred in the funeral home industry Historically, this industry was characterized by primarily small mom-and-pop family owner/operators These small businesses were selling for 2 to 3 times EBITDA But in the early 1990s, the value of companies in this fragmented industry of over 25,000 funeral homes began to change dramatically Four companies, which are now publicly owned, began a fierce battle, competing with one another to grow their companies rapidly by consolidating the industry The four companies, Service Corporation International, Stewart Enterprises Inc, Loewen Group Inc, and Carriage Services, Inc, in many instances sought the same funeral homes, so that by the end of 1998, funeral homes were selling for 8 to 10 times EBITDA In 1997, the industry saw the beginning of a decline in these multiples because the growth began to slow As one business analyst said, this industry is suffering from overvaluation of companies financed by too much debt that cannot be repaid because of an outbreak of wellness fewer people are dying24 About 23 million people die each year in the United States, with a typical average annual increase of 1 percent But in 1997, for the first time in a decade, that number decreased There were 445 fewer deaths in 1997 than in 1996 One interesting reason for this decline was the weather Most people die in the harsh winter The past few winters in the United States have been relatively mild The industry s growth was also hurt by the increasing popularity of cremations, which cost half the price of traditional burials25
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The final example of an ever-changing multiple was that applied to high-growth Microsoft From 1994 to 1996, Microsoft s multiple of revenues more than doubled, from 6 to 1426 ASSET VALUATION In the past, the value of a company s assets had a great significance in determining the company s overall valuation Today, most American companies do not have many tangible assets because each year fewer things are produced in the United States Most are produced overseas in low-wage-paying countries like China, India, and Taiwan The result is that over time, the value of a company is dependent less on its assets than on its cash flow Asset value tends to be most meaningful in cases in which financially troubled companies are being sold In that case, the negotiation for the value of the company typically begins at the depreciated value of its assets CAPITALIZATION OF CASH FLOWS Free Cash Flow Method The most complicated and involved valuation model is the free cash flow model, also known as the discounted cash flow or capitalization of cash flow model It is a model that relies on projections filled with assumptions, because there are so many unknown variables Therefore, it is the model most commonly used to value high-risk start-ups Simply stated, free cash flow is the portion of a company s operating cash flow that is available for distribution to the providers of debt (ie, interest and principal payments) and equity (ie, dividend payments and repurchase of stock) capital This is the cash that is available after the operating taxes, working capital needs, and capital expenditures have been deducted Using this valuation method, one approach is to forecast the FCF as the Japanese do: for 25 years without regard to what happens later, because its discounted value will be insignificant Another similar, and more commonly used, approach is to separate the value of the business into two time periods: during and after an explicitly forecasted period The during period is referred to as the planning period The after period is referred to as the residual
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