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CHAPTER
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Copyright 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies Click Here for Terms of Use
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13
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Introduction
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In the fall of 2000, as this book was being finished, DVD was on the verge of turning four years old It had succeeded beyond many expectations but also failed to meet other expectations Given the wide range of forecasts and markets, this is no surprise This chapter examines past and present forecasts, along with possibilities for DVD over the next decade or so At the very least, it should prove entertaining and informative to reread this chapter four or five years hence Even though DVD PCs were five to seven times as popular as home DVD players in 2000, about 10,000 movie titles were available, compared to only 200 computer software titles Over 100 million DVDs discs were shipped in 1999, with expectations of shipping 230 million or more in 2000, potentially surpassing VHS revenues Before the end of 2000, 10 percent of US homes had a DVD player Although DVD has a long way to go before it reaches the 98 percent penetration of color TV and the 94 percent penetration of VCRs, now that it has passed the inflection point of 10 percent, its growth will presumably continue to accelerate faster than any previous consumer electronics entertainment technology The success of DVD-Audio is assured only by the success of DVD-Video If DVD-Audio had to stand on its own, it would most likely fall flat on its face Instead, however, it rides the coattails of DVD-Video By 2002 or thereabouts, most DVD players will play both DVD-Audio and DVD-Video discs, and the distinctions between formats will largely disappear DVD-Audio discs will simply be a higher-fidelity variation of DVD Although the growth of the DVD PC market has been slower than generally expected, it will inevitably displace the CD-ROM PC market CDROM media will continue to be widely used, however, but CD-ROM drives will soon suffer the fate of single-density floppy drives (remember those ) The argument about whether DVD will succeed or not has been settled, but now the question is how well will it succeed How long will it take prerecorded DVDs to outsell VHS tapes When will DVD recorders replace VCRs Will the DVD-VR and DVD-AR formats succeed How will harddisk-based personal video recorders (PVRs) factor in When will the next generation of high-density DVD appear How much will it hold What will the high-definition video format be like Will we ever need another audio format The variables involved in predicting the road of DVD are extremely complex, but this has not deterred many people from making plentiful predictions from the sensible to the outrageous
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AM FL Y
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The DVD format was announced in December of 1995 In the 11 months between then and the appearance of the first DVD players for sale in Japan, the only people making money from DVD were journalists and analysts Considering the disparity between their forecasts, some of them were making more money than they deserved It has been interesting to look back and see who had the most accurate auguries Here is an interesting potpourri of prognostications, all made in 1996: Philips: 25 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by the year 2000 (10 percent of projected 250 million optical drives) Pioneer: 500,000 DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 54 million sold in 2000 Toshiba: 120 million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80 percent penetration of 150 million PCs) Toshiba projects that it will no longer make CD-ROM drives in the year 2000 International Data Corporation (IDC): 10 million DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million sold in 2000 (surpassing CD-ROM), and 118 million sold in 2001 Over 13 percent of all software will be available on DVD-ROM in 1998 DVD recordable drives will make up more than 90 percent of the combined CD/DVD recordable market in 2001, with DVD drive units installed in 95 percent of computer systems with fixed storage IDC later revised its figures to 37 million in 1997, 108 million in 1998, 365 million in 1999, and 95 million in the year 2000 AMI: An installed base of seven million DVD-ROM drives by 2000 Intel: 70 million DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass CDROM drives in 1998) InfoTech: 11 million DVD-Video players in 1997, with 10 million by 2000 12 million DVD-ROM drives in 1997, with 39 million by 2000 250,000 interactive (video game or cable TV set-top) DVD players in 1997, with six million by 2000 InfoTech revised its DVD-Video predictions in January of 1997 to a slightly lower 820,000 units in the first year, with an installed base of 80 million by 2005 Dataquest: One-year sales of 15 million DVD-Video players in 2000, with a DVD optical drive market of $35 million by 1996 and $41 billion by 2000
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