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Entertainment/Sony Wonder, MGM Home Entertainment, and Philips Polygram Perennial favorites Casablanca and Singin in the Rain were announced by two studios each Also at the Consumer Electronics Show, DVD players were demonstrated or announced by Akai, Denon, Faroudja, Fisher, JVC, Meridian, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips/Magnavox, Pioneer, RCA, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, Yamaha, and Zenith, most with a US release date between March and summer This brought the lineup of player manufacturers to at least 20, including others who had previously announced DVD movie plans: Goldstar, Hitachi, Hyundai, and Sharp Compared with typical industry support of new launches even now-ubiquitous products such as telephones, televisions, VCRs, and CDs this was an astonishing endorsement that flew in the face of the predictions of gloom and doom for DVD as a consumer video product And on the computer side, where most people expected DVD to be a slam dunk, there were now over 45 companies developing hardware or playback software As it turned out, many of them abandoned their efforts within a year Players from Panasonic and Pioneer finally began to appear in the United States in February as more movies and music performance videos were announced from Lumivision, Warner Bros Records, and others Eager customers bought the players, only to discover that no titles other than those from Lumivision were scheduled to appear before the end of March Warner, the primary supplier, limited its release to seven test cities Pioneer announced that its $11,500 DVD-R recorder would be available, complete with 40 to 50 blank discs, around June of 1997 Computer makers geared up for both hardware and software DVD-Video playback, but once again, the copy protection issue settled on the scene like a wet blanket: Decryption/descrambling licenses were available for hardware but not yet allowed for software The studios were unconvinced that DVD players implemented in software would completely protect their assets They were right, of course, but that did not mollify the computer makers and software developers who were counting on cheap software playback DVD had finally embarked, late and lacking some of its early luster, on the rocky road to acceptance
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The two final competing DVD-RAM proposals were merged, and an official format was announced on April 14, 1997 The approval procedure was allegedly changed so that members of the original SD camp could steamroll their combined proposal over the objections and abstentions of Sony and
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Philips, who were promoting a format more closely related to their own CDRW The fresh veneer of cooperation was cracking, revealing the possibility of a competing recordable DVD format Toshiba, which apparently announced the DVD-RAM arrangement before it was approved, made almost comical claims that drives would be available before the end of 1997 for only $350 More sober predictions targeted 1998 and prices of $800 or more At about the same time, Pioneer revealed that its DVD-R drive would cost $6000 more than originally expected, raising the price to about $17,000 The good news was that DVD-R was expected to be compatible with most players and drives The bad news was that DVD-RAM would not be compatible with anything The worse news, surfacing about a month later, was that Sony and Philips were apparently striking off on their own with a renegade recordable format, along with partner Hewlett Packard A Philips spokeswoman said, We feel the DVD-RAM spec 10 agreed upon by the DVD Consortium is not an ideal format Our format will bring far better compatibility with the CD products that are already on the market NEC also announced its own competing recordable format The DVD family was losing unity To top it off, various technology announcements began appearing from DVD companies, announcing research on high-density DVD To DVD manufacturers, these were forward-looking announcements, necessary in the jostling for position that would precede work on the next generation of DVD To new customers just learning about DVD, especially those used to the slow turnover of traditional technologies such as TVs and record players, news hinting at the imminent obsolescence of the new DVD format was disconcerting Rockley Miller, editor of the Multimedia Monitor newsletter, characterized the acceptance cycle of new technologies He posited that every new technology hits an initial peak of euphoria, often before it is released to market, where wildly exaggerated forecasts are piled on claims of vast improvements Of course, the new devices never live up to the impossible expectations, leading to Miller s second cycle: disillusionment Sales are lower than expected, equipment does not work perfectly, and development happens more slowly than predicted The press always jumps in at this point, sometimes even proclaiming the failure of the format From the trough of disillusionment, however, comes the gradual rise to the third phase of the cycle: real product and real work Bugs are worked out, better products are released, and people begin to figure out how to use the new technology for what it does best In the middle of 1997, DVD was in the trough of disillusionment On the home video front, Time Warner and player manufacturers had not expanded beyond the six trial cities, although discs and players usually could be had via mail order Many of the major studios were keeping their
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