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CHAPTER 2 Valuation Approaches: How We Value a Business
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than triple the size of the subject company, although some professionals feel comfortable with an average size that is 10 times the subject company20 2 There are many Guideline Companies in the same industry as the subject company The more the better Statistically, there is a huge difference between having three or four versus even seven or eight 3 There is data on historical and/or forecast growth (forecast is more important) on the Guideline Companies 4 The multiples are either very consistent (meaning they do not vary in magnitude by much) or their variations can be explained by known factors such as different forecast growth rates The less these conditions are met, the less reliable the GPCM will be It is ridiculous and dangerous to use public company multiples, which are typically in the 15 to 33 range for Price Earnings (PE) multiples, on small, private companies, which normally should have PE multiples in the 2 to 6 range unless they are expected to be very high growth firms Also, remember that the stock of publicly traded firms is almost instantly marketable you can sell today and receive cash in three days while ownership of a private firm is very illiquid and requires a discount for lack of marketability to put it on a level playing field with ownership of publicly traded securities
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Guideline Private Company Method
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This is mechanically identical to the Guideline Public Company Method except the nature and cost of the data that are avail20 There are mathematically sophisticated ways that may be able to control for differences in size, but they are complex and beyond the scope of this book See Jay B Abrams, Quantitative Business Valuation: A Mathematical Approach for Today s Professionals, New York: McGraw-Hill, 2001, 46 52 Even so, these methods do not always work In regression analysis, I prefer that the guideline companies be within the range of one-half to twice the size of each other and the Subject Company, because of heteroscedasticity correlation of the valuation errors to the size of the guideline companies
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PART ONE Business Valuation
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able and the level of value of the Fair Market Value calculations are different21 Individual private companies do not have the benefit of being tracked by millions of investors Suppose your company is Vaporware, Inc, a software developer There are no stock analysts tracking it The Securities Exchange Commission has no jurisdiction over it, and its financial statements do not have to be audited and are not subject to SEC regulation There are a few private databases that record sales of private businesses They cost money to obtain, and I don t think they re worthwhile for quick-and-dirty valuation purposes If you have a legal reason to need a valuation, you ll probably have a professional business valuator working for you, and he or she will have access to at least one of the private transactional databases I am not much of a fan of any of them, except for valuing very common, prosaic businesses like restaurants There is usually too much data that is not present especially historical and forecast growth for them to be useful to me as a professional Other professionals disagree For those of you who are interested in the business databases, you can see their Web sites at wwwbizcompscom, wwwinstbusapporg/, and wwwbvresourcescom/ The latter Web site sells several private databases and offers a single-inquiry option at a fraction of the annual subscription price If you do use a private database, you would perform the calculations in the same way as in Table A21, the Public Company Method sampled in the appendix to this chapter The major difference is that private databases at least theoretically provide much more of an apples-to-apples comparison than public databases Vaporware is actually a mid-size business, not a small business If it had sales of $750,000 instead of $75 million, it would be the same size as the majority of the transactions in the Institute of Business Appraisers database The firms in the database have more resemblance to most private
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The level of value is a concept we will present later in the book It is part of the fine-tuning of the valuation, and it deals with the level of control and marketability of the business interest being valued It is not part of getting us in the right ballpark of value to begin with
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