connectcode .net barcode sdk cent growth rate into the GMM formula: GMM in Software

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Sensitivity Analysis
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To help give you a sense of how changes in the discount rate and long-term growth rate will change the valuation result, look at Table 71A, a sensitivity analysis
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There is an apparent but not real $100 rounding error
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PART ONE Business Valuation
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E 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68
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71A
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Sample Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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1% 0% 1% 3% 5% 7%
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15% $761,005 $799,684 $843,888 $954,398 $1,109,113 $1,341,185
17% $680,337 $709,899 $743,156 $823,923 $931,612 $1,082,377
Discount 19% $615,806 $639,013 $664,799 $726,041 $804,780 $909,765
Rate 21% $563,008 $581,625 $602,104 $649,887 $709,617 $786,412
23% $519,010 $534,213 $550,798 $588,944 $635,567 $693,846
25% $481,780 $494,382 $508,035 $539,063 $576,297 $621,806
The final value calculated in the example in Table 71 appears in Table 71A, K67: $635,567 You ll notice, as you move to the right in the table, that the discount rate increases and the valuation decreases Conversely, as you move to the lefthand side, the values rise with the lower discount rates As you move down, the growth rate increases and so do the values As you move up, the growth rate declines and the values decrease Thus, the highest value ($1,341,185 at G68) is at the bottom left-hand corner, and the lowest value ($481,780 at L63) is at the top right-hand corner
Growth Rate
Valuation Spreadsheet
On the Web site wwwabramsvaluationcom, click on the Books menu, then click on the menu for this book, and you will find a spreadsheet that looks like Table 72 It is a version of Table 71 waiting for your company s data The spreadsheet requires the user to input the following items: Net income forecasts for three years in cells B6, C6, and D6 A Payout Ratio assumption in B19 A long-term cash flow growth rate assumption in B21
CHAPTER 7 Sample Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
TABLE
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Future Years Forecast Economic Net Income Payout Ratio (B19) Forecast Economic Cash Flow Present Value Factor (Midyear Assumption) Present Value of Economic Cash Flow (Row 8 * Row 9) Total Present Value of Economic Cash Flow: Years 1-3 Forecast Economic Cash Flow Year 4 [D8 * (1 B21)] Gordon Multiple Economic Cash Flows Year 4 to Infinity: At End of Year 3 Present Value Factor to Discount Year 4 to Infinity CF to Year O Present Value of Economic Cash Flows Year 4 to Infinity Total Present Value of Economic Cash Flows (B11+B16) [1] Assumptions Payout Ratio Discount Rate Long-Term Cash Flow Growth Rate
1 80% 08980 (58608) 05245 -
2 80% 07242 -
3 80% 05840 -
80% 24% 5%
23 [1] Many business sales are structured in a way that the seller retains some of the working cap24 25 26 27 28 [2] In The Equity Premium, Eugene Fama & Kenneth French, Journal of Finance, April 2002, 64729 30 31 32 33 34 35 659, the authors forecast future returns will be lower than historical returns by approximately 4 percent In The Supply of Stock Market Returns, Roger G Ibbotson and Peng Chen, Yale ICF Working Paper 00-44, the authors forecast future returns will be lower than historical returns only by 1 percent It will take a long time to sort through the arguments and come to some consensus, if there ever will be one I use my professional judgment to choose Ibbotson s more conservative 1 percent adjustment In the meantime, obviously this creates a great deal of uncertainty about values ital items, usually cash, receivables, and payables If you are thinking about making such a transaction, you should adjust the value to purchase price by subtracting cash and receivables and adding back payables that remain with the seller See 10 for more details
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