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As you develop your security metrics, you should be less concerned with what makes a metric intrinsically good or bad and much more concerned with how you develop measurement projects that provide value and organizational benefits to your security program This means taking the time to develop metrics that are based on your unique requirements and not relying on out-of-the-box metrics that you apply without thinking about what the measurement is supposed to achieve Most security programs today already collect more data than they analyze, and metrics that generate unexamined data just add more to the pile These are the types of metrics I would consider intrinsically bad, because they add no value to the security program and may even produce additional uncertainty and risk What makes a metric good has less to do with the innate qualities of the metric and more to do with how you approach the measurement If you want to know whether or not your metric is good, consider your answers to three basic questions
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Designing Effective Security Metrics
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Recall the general risk assessment matrix from 1, placed in the context of the preceding definitions Can it be described in terms of a security metric Sure it can Building a risk matrix is an act of judging or estimating the qualities of something through comparison to something else, to some standard of measurement The risk matrix is an instrument for the measurement But what exactly is the something being measured and what is the standard to which that something is compared Here is where things get tricky Based on how the matrix is described and used throughout the security world, the something being measured would be the risk to whatever system or organization is the target of the assessment The standard of measurement therefore would be the combined risk score that determines where in the matrix the risk falls, be it very high, very low, or somewhere in between But this is not accurate, because the data that has gone into the construction of the matrix does not directly involve the system itself or the threats to the system (some of which may only be the subject of speculation), or the realization of probable loss (which cannot be fully known until after a security incident has occurred) Instead, the data that is used to build the matrix are the statements of the people that (hopefully) understand the system in question and have enough expertise and experience to estimate the risk to the system These statements do not measure actual risk, but rather what people think the risk may be (or at least what they are willing to say they think) The problem is not that the risk assessment is bad measurement, but that the way many security professionals using the matrix have defined it guarantees that it will not be used effectively When you use a tool improperly, it tends to give you poor results We know that a risk assessment involves human judgment and cannot be completely accurate The proper approach to the resulting uncertainties is to define, understand, and reduce them There are accepted methods for increasing the accuracy of judgment and prediction under uncertainty, including expert calibration and training to make estimates more precise and to leverage large bodies of past event data on which to base future extrapolations These techniques require expertise and work on the part of the organization measuring the risk IT security capabilities are often too immature to effectively handle all the variables Instead, risk assessments result in a bad mix of turning opinions into numbers (because 1 100 looks more credible than high/medium/low), treating estimates as facts (because you can t tell your boss that your made-up numbers may also be wrong), and then rationalizing away failure by saying that the assessment was qualitative so no one should have expected accuracy to begin with Poor results do not mean the risk matrix is flawed any more than a disappointing attempt at using a hammer as a can-opener means the hammer is flawed Improper understanding of a problem increases the probability that you will choose the wrong tool When selecting metrics, be sure that you have given adequate thought to what you are trying to accomplish, and this includes more than just the immediate thing that you are trying to measure You should take into account a number of considerations: The underlying reason for the measurement Metrics designed to understand security are different from metrics designed to respond to a request for metrics
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