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Figure 1-1
Generalized risk assessment matrix
IT Security Metrics
majority of discussions, books, and training programs regarding IT security risk assessment The matrix may be more complex and contain different scales, weighting factors, heat map colors, or other bells and whistles, but they all are derived from the same concept The idea is that you estimate the likelihood that something (usually a technology system) will experience a negative security event, and then you estimate the severity of that event in terms of how badly the system is impacted The results are used to populate the matrix and give you a prioritized summary of your risk The matrix is simple and makes intuitive sense, which is likely why it has persisted for so long Nevertheless, as an instrument for measuring risk, it is pretty limited, certainly too limited to justify the enormous amount of stock that we put into it in support of some of our security decisions While it has problems as a measure of actual risk, the matrix can be quite effective as a targeted opinion poll It allows security subject matter experts to prototype quickly what they believe to be their biggest security problems You see this type of assessment used all the time in the media, when experts are brought in to clarify and provide opinion on current affairs and events These individuals have knowledge and experience that should make them more suitable to comment on the topics under consideration than just anyone off the street Of course, none of this expertise proves that these people are correct, and in fact experts often disagree The point is that experts should have more informed opinions regarding the areas of their expertise than the rest of us this is why we have teachers and doctors and attorneys and security specialists in the first place Their insights can clarify a subject and remove the confusion and noise surrounding it, allowing us to focus on what really matters The important point is to recognize that opinion alone can have value, and not to insist that the opinion also represent a fact in order to have merit A security risk matrix based on expert judgments can be a useful estimate, but it remains a set of opinions about risk The biggest security problems identified in the matrix are not necessarily the biggest security problems facing the enterprise The hope is that the true security risks will correlate in some way with the expert opinions of those responsible for security As I will describe in later chapters, there are ways to calibrate and refine expert judgment to make these opinions less uncertain, but there will always be a margin for error When we deliberately ignore this uncertainty because we want to pretend we have identified a fact, we lose track of what we are measuring and our matrix becomes misleading and contributes more, not less, uncertainty to our decisions This result reflects the first of two fundamental limitations involved in this form of risk assessment
Security Risk Assessments Don t Measure Risk
Consider the standard security risk assessment methodology Groups of stakeholders are gathered together or surveyed by questionnaire and asked to provide risk scores for probability and severity of occurrence for their systems and data These individuals dutifully provide the requested data, which is used to populate the matrix The result is that a measurement has certainly been conducted We can even claim that the measurement was more or less empirical because it involved observing some phenomena
1:
What Is a Security Metric
The problem is that where we think we measured security risk, we actually measured human judgments about security risk In more formal measurement terms, we have just developed what is known as a validity problem what we think we are observing does not accurately reflect what we are actually observing Some critics of this simplified form of risk assessment go to the opposite extreme, believing that since you are not actually measuring risk, the entire assessment matrix exercise is worthless I tend to disagree Nothing is intrinsically wrong with measuring someone s opinion of something If such measurement did not produce valuable results, the marketing and advertising industries (not to mention political consulting groups) would have collapsed long ago The important consideration is that, when the marketing department of your favorite gadget measures consumer opinions on product quality, they do not make the mistake of thinking that they are actually measuring how good the product really is Security managers could do a lot to improve the quality of their risk assessment activities by simply recognizing this subtle but important point that they are measuring opinion rather than risk, but that opinion is also valuable They might then make the risk assessments more rigorous by focusing efforts on improving the judgments that they elicit, perhaps by calibration exercises and the use of confidence intervals, instead of insisting on turning those opinions into hard numbers that look better in a chart
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