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The Art of Tape Reading: Analyzing and Reacting to News
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Interpret and React to Major News
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When news of consequence hits the street about the US economy, our government, foreign countries, or international events, the capable
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tape sleuths are sometimes less concerned with whether the news is
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good or bad than they are in analyzing the news effect on the market For example, if the market yawns at national news that appears to be bad, the investor will feel positive since this is an indication the underlying market may be stronger than originally believed On the other hand, if highly positive news strikes the market and stocks give ground slightly, the tape analyst might conclude the underpinnings of the market are weaker than previously believed The essential point is not always whether the news is good or bad but how the market handles itself in face of seemingly positive or negative news Sometimes the market overreacts or even counteracts favorable items or disappointing news On Wednesday, November 9, 1983, someone ran a full page ad in The Wall Street Journal predicting rampant inflation and another 1929 depression The ad appeared during the middle of an intermediate correction in the market Its warnings were so overboard and exaggerated that the market immediately responded with a rapid 17-point advance and the beginning of a rally that lasted for several days There is also a marked difference between a market that tumbles for a couple of days on definite scare news, which is easy to understand and explain, and one which slumps noticeably on no apparent news at all The experienced tape investigator will have a good memory or keep records of all past major news events and how they affected the market These would include important items, such as President Elsenhower's heart attack, the Cuban missile crisis, the Kennedy assassination, an outbreak of war, the Arab oil embargo, and rumors of various government actions such as wage and price controls, US flagging of Kuwait oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, or unsound legislation pending in Congress
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News can also be very paradoxical and confusing to the market neophyte For example, a company can have a bad quarterly earnings report released and the stock may go up in price when the news is reported When this occurs, it is often because the news was known or anticipated ahead of time and a few professionals may decide to'buy or cover short sales once all of the bad news is finally out Some institutions may feel they are wily to follow the old saw, "Buy on bad news" Others believe they should provide support for one of their large positions at a difficult time
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Analyzing the News Media
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There are several excellent books written on the subject of analyzing
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national news Humphrey Neill, author of the 1931 classic Tape Reading and Market Tactics, also wrote The Art of Contrary Opinion, which
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carefully examines the way identical news stories are reported quite differently in the various cities' newspaper headlines, and how that can be misleading to stock owners His contrary opinion investment theory is developed by illustrating how frequently conventional wisdom or accepted consensus opinion expressed in the national news media turns out to be ill-conceived or wrong Media expert Bruce Herschensohn wrote a short, easy-to-read book
entitled The Gods of Antenna It specifically tells how our national TV
news can manipulate and bias the news to influence and help form pub-
lic opinion It was published in 1976 by Arlington House in New
Rochelle, New York Another book on the subject is The Coming Battle for the Media, published in 1988 by William Rusher The most outstanding study on the subject was published in 1986 by Adler & Adler, 4550 Montgomery Avenue, Bethesda, Maryland, entitled, The Media Elite, by authors Rothman and Lichter In it, they interview 240
journalists and top staffers at The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Time, Newsweek, and US News & World
Report magazines, and the news departments of ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS When asked to rate their fellow workers' leanings, they said by a margin of seven to one their co-workers were mostly on the liberal left versus the conservative right Eighty-five percent of the top national journalists were found to be liberal and voted the Democratic ticket in recent elections How the national news is edited and presented does dramatically affect every investor, our economy, public opinion, and public confidence in the economy, our government, our President, and the stock market To succeed financially as individual investors or as a nation, we need to learn to separate with better insight and perspective the relevant accurate facts from the national media's own political agenda, personal
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