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Brunswick stock was a prominent performer in 1960 and 1961 Throughout Brunswick's tremendous move that began in 1958 until its peak in 1961, AMF, a stock that also made automatic pinspotters for
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bowling alleys, gyrated pretty much in unison with Brunswick After
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Brunswick peaked in March 1961, it rallied back from $50 to $65 But for the first time, AMF did not recover with Brunswick This was the subsurface tip-off that the move in Brunswick was not going to last, that the stock should be sold the entire group had made a long-term top One practical rule is to avoid buying any stock unless there is confirmation of its strength and attractiveness by at least one other important stock in the same group The few instances where this confirmation is missing should be in stocks you can classify as totally uniqvie companies Walt Disney should have been classified at points in the past as a unique entertainment company, rather than just a company in the unsteady movie group Through our building of historical models in the stock market, there are two other valuable concepts we've discovered The first we named the "follow-on group effect"
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The "Follow-On Group Effect"
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When efficient new jet aircraft took to the skies in 1963 through 1965,
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airline stocks also flew As a result of materially increased air travel, the hotel stocks had a tremendous bull market beginning in 1967 Loews
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Scan Measures of an Industry's Relative Strength
Industry group-strength ratings are published by many services On the
and Hilton were big winners A shortage of hotel space was the followon effect caused by the large increase in air travel When the price of oil grew dear in the late 1970s, oil companies began drilling like mad for the pricey substance As a follow-on result, rising oil prices not only fueled a huge price surge in oil common stocks in 1979, but oil service stocks gushed the next year as oil companies aggressively stepped up exploration The roaring sales success of small- and medium-sized computer manufacturers during the 1978-1981 bull market created the "follow-on" demand for computer service, software, and peripheral products in the market resurgence of late 1982
next page is an example of group ratings which appear every week in
the Daily Graphs service A scan of this list each week will show you not
only which groups are currently strongest, but which groups have just moved into the top 100 This could be an early indication of possible new group leadership when confirmed by other fundamental economic checks On August 14, 1970, the mobile home sector crossed into the top 100 groups arid remained in the top 100 until February 12, 1971 The group returned to the top 100 on May 14, 1971, and fell into the bottom half on July 28, 1972 In the prior cycle, mobile homes were in the top 100 groups in December 1967 and dropped to the bottom half in 1969 The price advances of mobile home stocks were spellbinding during these positive periods Fidelity Funds of Boston also shows more than 25 industry mutual
Use the Cousin Stock Theory
We labeled the second concept the "cousin stock theory" If a group is doing exceptionally well, there may be a distinctive supplier company that is also enjoying expanding sales In 1965, Boeing was selling many new jet airliners as a result of escalating airline demand A cousin stock to Boeing was Monogram Industries which, of all things, supplied chemical toilets for all the new jets Monogram earnings increased 200%, and this little gem had a 1000% advance In 1983, Fleetwood, a leading manufacturer of recreational vehicles, was a big winner in the stock market Textone was a small "cousin stock" because it supplied vinyl-clad paneling and hollow-core cabinet doors to recreational vehicles and mobile home companies
funds whose recent performance can be checked to spot the best-acting industry sectors Listed below are the leading industry groups of each bull market from 1953 through early 1994
1953-1954
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