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The investment methods used by some state and educational funds could be improved Some employ fairly deficient methods of stock selection Once these so-so investment decisions are made, the decision makers tend to ride through the years with losing investments
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Taxpayers normally have to ante up when these funds have mediocre performance In some cases, states might be better off turning their investment portfolio over to several professional money managers rather than having it run by state employees
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Is an Index Fund the Way to Go
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One last thought about the indexing of equity portfolios A key fallacy of index funds is the bold assumption that a pension fund's basic objective should be to match some general market index This is a dangerous and false conclusion For example, if we were to go through another 1929, and the general market indexes were to decline 90% in value, no intelligent trustee could possibly believe his or her fund's objective should be to lose 90% of its value Positively no one would be happy just because they achieved their target of matching the market indexes' disastrous performance I actually saw a version of this happen in 1974 I was called in to evaluate a fund that lost exactly 50% of its assets because it was managed by an organization that specialized in and promoted index funds The irony of the situation was that the corporation was furious at such horrendous losses, but of course this sort of bad performance by an index fund was hushed up and never allowed to be publicized in the press It was an embarrassment to the company I have also seen several index funds that failed to keep up with the index they were supposed to match Once this occurred, the master planners went back to the drawing board and came up with new versions of indexing which injected more human judgment into formulas This human analysis and personal analytical opinion contradicted the broad assumption that index funds began with in the first place My answer to the whole thing is simple Why should anyone expect the majority of thousands of money managers to do any better than an average or mediocre job, any more than the majority of musicians, ball players, doctors, teachers, artists, or carpenters perform better than average The truth of the matter is that the typical person in many fields might be a slightly subpar performer The answer in money management is the same as in other occupations to get above-average results, you have to go out of your way to find the small minority of managers who are above average in their profession To say this is impossible and just can't be done is narrow-minded and foolhardy To say that stocks are a random walk and you can't select securities successfully because all information is already known and
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Value Line's rating system since 1965 is ample evidence that stocks can be selected which materially outperform the market Our top Datagraph-rated stocks have substantially outperformed market averages over the 30 years from 1964 through 1993 Professor Marc Reinganum of the University of Iowa, during a University of Chicago sabbatical produced an independent research study entitled "Selecting Superior Securities" He selected nine variables comparable to those discussed in this book and achieved a 1984-1985 research result 367 percentage points greater than the S&P 500 The stock market is neither efficient nor a random walk simply because there are too many poorly conceived opinions, too many incorrect interpretations, and too many emotions such as pride, doubt, fear, and hope Sometimes there are just shallow or bad judgments, numerous complex variables, and fast-changing events which analysts do not properly weight even when they possess all relevant information, which is the exception rather than the rule And finally, there are just too many poor fundamental and technical research reports always recommending mediocre-acting stocks or stocks off in price Sell recommendations are few and far between at the beginning of each bear market because everything is always a buy on the way down One of the nation's largest retailers indexed part of its pension fund,
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