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needs-and-wants method comes in Rather than compare the current level of expenses with what will be estimated for retirement, this approach goes into the future to calculate how much annual income the clients will need in order to keep the standard of living that they want It also takes inflation into consideration, and will calculate how much the clients need to save between now and when they plan to retire Should conditions or expectations change (ie, retirement date changes, clients receive a large inheritance, inflation is much greater than anticipated), it will be necessary to update the model to reflect an accurate and realistic forecast for the clients Depending on what the updated analysis says, you may need to adjust your savings and investments to help you reach your goals
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Once you ve figured out how much money you will need to fund your retirement, the question becomes, Where will that money come from To answer this, you will need to estimate what your annual income will be during retirement Currently, the two main sources of retirement income are social security and employer-sponsored pension plans However, unless you will be retiring in the very near future (20 years or fewer), you may not be able to rely on social security as a guaranteed income stream But what about pensions These days people are changing jobs more frequently, which causes them to have smaller pensions, or no pensions at all Plus, companies are phasing out pensions to help cut costs What I ve found is that most people cannot count on pensions And, unless the Social Security Administration figures out how to continue funding the social security trust funds, people won t be able to rely on that, either See Figure 141) In fact, many people in their 20s and 30s don t even believe that Social Security will be around for them when they want to retire This means that people have to rely on themselves more and more for their retirements Let s assume that social security will be there for Jeff and Mary Client Since they both work, they will both be entitled to their own retirement benefits, rather than having one receive worker s retirement benefits and the other receive spousal benefits Assuming that they
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will receive about $15,000 per year in retirement benefits, with annual expenses of $72,000, they will need at least $57,000 (in today s dollars; inflation will push that figure higher) per year to help fund their retirement, assuming no other sources of income Once inflation1 is figured in (at a relatively high rate of five percent over 10 years), that $57,000 per year needed turns into $92,853 per year! (Annual expenses after inflation are $117,288) Neither Jeff nor Mary believes that they will receive any type of retirement pension from their employers Therefore, they will have to save this money themselves
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$72,000 $72,000 1629 (5% inflation factor) Annual expenses Social Security = $72,000 $15,000 $57,000 1629
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= annual expenses = $117,288 = $57,000 (annual shortfall) = $92,853 per year = $928,530 = $928,530
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$92,853 10% Total needed
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Jeff and Mary now know that they have an annual shortfall of nearly $93,000 In order to reach that goal, they will hypothesize their annual rate of return, so that they know how much they need to save on an annual basis If we estimate a 10-percent annual return on Jeff s and Mary s money during retirement, we see that they need to save a total of $928,530 ($92,853 10) before they retire in order to be able to live on $72,000 per year in today s dollars Continuing with the 10-percent return, their nest egg will yield $92,853 per year to make up their shortfall Plus, as long as the principal ($928,530) isn t touched, it will continue to generate this income for Jeff and Mary, and will eventually become part of their estate
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Inflation factor found in Personal Financial Planning, Eighth Edition, by Lawrence J Gitman and Michael D Joehnk Harcourt Brace College Publishers, 1999
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