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Before we get into the speci cs of stock selection, it s important to consider what type of information we re looking to glean Every stock investor has to worry about two basic sets of considerations: 1 Is the company deteriorating or likely to deteriorate To help you determine that, you will need information from the company s own nancial documents In addition, there s also the possibility that a company may not be deteriorating from a nancial standpoint, but that other investors have simply bid up its shares so much that its price has now actually overshot the true market value of the business In this regard, you aren t looking for problems with the company so much as problems with the expectations that other investors are imposing on it To determine this type of risk, you ll have to pay attention to various valuation measures 2 What is the upside potential of the stock To reiterate, stock performance correlates to pro t growth This means that as an investor one thing
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Demystifying Stock Selection
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you ll absolutely need to know is a rm s recent earnings performance and the consistency of its earnings growth over time This information can be obtained from various nancial Web sites that we will discuss in a second In addition, it s important to appreciate the fact that the stock market is a forward-looking indicator This means it s also critical to weigh the future earnings growth potential of the business To this end, you can turn to a whole host of nancial Web sites that gather and analyze information on Wall Street analysts projections on a stock Let s start by taking a look at some of the basic and free resources all of us can turn to While some of you may have access to professional Wall Street research if you have brokerage accounts established at full-service rms that assemble proprietary equity research, like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Smith Barney most of us aren t privy to this type of information These free sites, then, can come in handy for quick analysis of company risk
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In 13, concerning mutual fund selection, we will discuss at length the screening tools that the fund-tracking company Morningstar o ers to fund investors The good news for equity investors is that Morningstar has recently added similar screening capabilities and tools for stocks Through Morningstar s free Web site (wwwmorningstarcom), you can now screen for stocks based on the following factors:
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Stock sectors If you re only interested in nding stocks in a particular industry, you can screen for technology, telecom, health care, nancial services, utilities, energy, natural resources, industrial materials, or consumer-related rms Stock types This is based on Morningstar s own proprietary determinations concerning stock attributes Morningstar divides the equity universe into aggressive growth, growth, slow growth, or speculative growth classi cations Moreover, you can screen for high-dividendyielding stocks, distressed stocks, and cyclically oriented stocks, which are those that tend to do well when the economy is ring on all cylinders but tend to do poorly in times of recession Typically, companies in technology, retail, telecom, consumer discretionary, and some parts of nancial services are considered cyclically oriented, while many rms in health care, utilities, consumer staples, and, to some extent, energy will be classi ed as noncyclical, meaning they could do well even if the economy sours
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PART 3 Selecting Your Assets
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Morningstar-style boxes You ll recall that Morningstar breaks the general equity fund universe into nine categories: large growth, large value, and large blend; mid-cap growth, mid-cap value, and mid-cap blend; and small growth, small value, and small blend Similarly, Morningstar will put stocks into those same classi cations for direct equity investors who want to be mindful of their overall asset allocation decisions So if you re only searching for stocks that are classi ed as small value, for instance, to round out a portfolio that may be large-cap and growth-oriented, you can screen for only that type stock Market caps With Morningstar, you can screen for stocks based on their market values, which again is calculated by multiplying a stock s price by the total number of shares the company has outstanding This is particularly useful for equity investors who seek stocks with certain risk-return characteristics If you re looking for speculative investments with high risk but high growth potential, it s likely you ll search among the small-caps (companies with market values under $1 billion) If you re looking for large, steady eddies, you ll probably focus on the blue chips found among large-caps (market values of $10 billion or more) And if you re looking to split the di erence, you can always search among mid-caps those stocks with market capitalization between around $1 and $10 billion You can also screen for micro-caps shares of companies with total market values of $250 million or less Morningstar grades As an equity research rm, Morningstar has its own proprietary grading systems for stocks based on their overall growth, their earnings outlook, and their nancial stability These grades, like report cards, range from A through F, with A being the best grade Revenues In addition to pro ts, you can screen for stocks based on sales, the importance of which we ll discuss in a moment Earnings Morningstar s stock screener lets you screen for stocks based on various measures of pro tability Past returns Investors looking for stocks that are on a roll or are in distress growth investors will be interested in the former; value investors in the latter can screen for stocks based on their share price performance over the past one and three months, as well as the past one and ve years Valuations Since valuations are a major consideration of a stock s relative risk, Morningstar allows investors to screen based on trailing price-to-earnings ratios Dividend yield Though many investors overlook stock dividends, a stock s payout percentage is also terribly important for an investor s
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