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Before you get started, there s yet another question you need to ask yourself: How much should I invest At rst blush, this may seem like the same question we asked earlier But there s a big di erence between guring out how much money you can potentially put in the market versus how much money you ought to put at risk Risk is the operative word The whole point of investing is nding a nancial way to reach a set of intermediate-term and long-term goals These are goals that won t arise for at least ve years, though they could be 30 or 40 years in the making But to meet these goals, you have to expose your money to risks, such as short-term stock or bond market losses It makes no sense whatsoever to expose yourself to more risk than is required The only way to gure out how much risk is required in other words, how much you must invest is to take an inventory of your needs They may include paying for college, buying a bigger house, retiring early, retiring well, or starting a business and quitting your job Each of these goals comes with a general time frame You may know, for example, that retirement won t be for another 27 years College might not roll around for 12 years But the bigger house may be something you want in six years Your daughter s wedding may be coming up in two years Contrary to popular belief, it s not how much you want something or need something that dictates the level of risk you should expose your portfolio to It s the length of time you have to invest in Wall Street, this is referred to as your time horizon that dictates how much risk you can expose yourself to Why is that There is a basic relationship in investing: The greater the risk, the greater the reward The corollary to this rule is that the lower the risk you take, the lower the reward you re likely to receive This makes sense After all, when you are investing money, you are entering into a transaction, and someone else is on the other side of that trade That someone else may be another investor selling stock you want to buy Your trading partner may be a company issuing a bond that it wants to sell you to help raise funds If the person on the other side of the transaction knows that this nancial arrangement you re about to enter into exposes you to no risks in other words, there s no downside for you then he would have little incentive to compensate you for your business On the other hand, if the person knows you could lose everything by entering into this arrangement, he or she might sweeten the pot to make it worth your while This basic relationship explains why a company with poor credit has to pay investors high interest rates on their bonds (another name for a high-yield bond is a junk bond ) On the other
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hand, the US government, which for all intents and purposes has perfect credit because it controls the nation s Treasury, often pays among the lowest interest on its bonds because investors know that there is absolutely no way the federal government can or will default on its debt: If push comes to shove, Uncle Sam can simply print more money Now, there are myriad ways investors can reduce some of these risks One is to diversify a portfolio by owning many individual securities, so that if one stock (say, shares of Enron) fails, the others in their holdings can keep them from losing too much money Another is to diversify a portfolio by owning di erent types of assets, so that if the stock market fails, the real estate market may protect you or vice versa A third way involves time We will discuss this point at greater length later on, but time has a way of reducing investing risks That s because over time, most investments have a way of making money If they didn t, they wouldn t be classi ed as investments they d be considered gambling Take stocks, for example In any one-year period of time, there is about a 27 percent chance that you will lose some of your money in the broad stock market, according to one study that looked at the equity markets from 1926 to 2002 However, if you have a three-year window of time, the odds of losing money fall to just 14 percent If you have a whole decade, it goes down to 4 percent (Figure 2-8)
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Fig 2-8 Odds of Losing Money in Stocks As this chart indicates, the longer your time horizon, the lower the odds of losing money in the equity markets If you have only one year to invest, for example, the odds are greater than one in four of losing money in equities But over 10-year periods of time, the odds of losing money drop to just 4 percent
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