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Fig 14-4 Average Annual Returns Based on Asset Allocation Strategies* As this table illustrates, your average annual returns grow over time as you increase your stake in equities
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*Based on stock and bond market performance between 1960 and 2003 Source: Vanguard Group
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long term, have a meaningful a ect on your portfolio with minimal additional exposure to risk For example, since 1960, the average portfolio that consisted of 100 percent bonds generated annualized returns of 73 percent, as can be seen in the above gure In fact, these portfolios lost money in just ve of 44 years since the Kennedy administration By reallocating just 20 percent of an all-bond portfolio into equities, you would have earned 81 percent a year between 1960 and 2003 And on a $10,000 investment, the di erence between earning 81 and 73 percent a year for 44 years comes out to more than $85,000 Meanwhile, you wouldn t have exposed yourself to that much more risk Historically, 20 percent stock/80 percent bond portfolios have lost money on average in only ve of the past 44 years exactly the same number of years that all-bond portfolios posted negative returns And like all-bond portfolios, an 80-20 bond/stock strategy would have lost only around 8 percent of its value in its single worst year, according to Vanguard s study
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PART 4 Organizing Your Assets
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Strategic vs Tactical Allocation
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Before we discuss ways to gure out your ideal allocation, it s important to distinguish the two types of asset allocation strategies: strategic and tactical The term strategic asset allocation refers to the long-term mix of stocks and bonds you feel is appropriate for a person in your age group with your level of risk tolerance Think of strategic asset allocation as a basic blueprint It represents the general path you plan to take, one that balances your desire for high returns and low risk However, like all blueprints, you may nd a need to adjust it or tweak it as you begin building your plan, as new realities surface and problems arise Since strategic asset allocation considerations are long-term re ecting in part your age and when you plan to retire in general they should not be overly a ected by short-term market or economic developments So, any short-term volatility in the market should not cause you to stray that much from your strategic mix of stocks and bonds Similarly, any short-term opportunities you see in certain sectors like technology or energy stocks should not in uence you to alter your long-term mix of stocks and bonds by more than a few degrees, nancial planners argue After all, whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average is soaring or collapsing does not change the fact that a 60-year-old worker who plans to retire in ve years will need to tap his or her account in the near term So your long-term preparations must go forward That being said, there are times when investors may feel the need either for opportunistic or defensive purposes to tweak their allocation strategies These types of short-term moves are referred to as tactical asset allocation decisions If, for example, the market is favoring dividend-paying stocks over shares of pure growth companies at present, an investor may decide to move more money into dividend-paying stocks, to take advantage of the situation If, on the other hand, an investor feels the economy is hitting a soft patch and thinks it may be worthwhile to reduce exposure to stocks tied to the cyclical recovery of the economy, then he or she may decide to shift out of economically sensitive sectors like retail and move into industries that don t require a healthy economy to shine such as consumer staples or health care One way to tweak your tactical allocation strategy without upsetting your long-term strategic mix of assets is to adjust the types of stocks or bonds you plan to buy not the percentage of those asset classes For example, assume that you believe a 60 percent stock/40 percent bond allocation strategy is the most appropriate mix for your long-term needs But say you think that small stocks have seen their best days You can keep your 60-40 general allocation,
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