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Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc Click here for terms of use
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On the plus side, there is the possibility that the company you invest in will not only thrive, but that it will grow more than you ever imagined it could And if that is the case, stock investors will earn far more on their money than any bond investor ever could Indeed, the potential upside of a successful stock investment is virtually limitless, since it is tied to the earnings the company will accrue over time For instance, who could have predicted back in the late 1970s that when a skinny college dropout named Bill Gates and his friend Paul Allen started a tiny company out of a makeshift o ce in Albuquerque, New Mexico, it would grow to become the world s biggest software company Today, Microsoft, now headquartered in Redmond, Washington, generates annual revenues in excess of $30 billion By 2004 it had generated such big pro ts that it was sitting on a mountain of more than $50 billion in cash it didn t know what to do with But for every Microsoft, there is an Enron Or a Worldcom And that is ultimately the risk you face as an investor of common stock: that the company you invest in will go bankrupt, and while in bankruptcy, common stock holders are last in line to make any claims to recoup losses from the failed rm The fact is, there are no guarantees in the stock market, just as there are no assurances that if you were to open a dry cleaning store down the street or a fast-food stand at the local mall you wouldn t lose your shirt
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Having said that, stocks are the best nancial asset in which long-term investors can put their money (Figure 5-1) Consider this: Between 1926 and 2003 blue chip equities delivered average returns of 104 percent a year If you had invested $10,000 in 1926, your money would have grown to more than $20 million by 2003 Mind blowing, isn t it This means that if you were to invest just $10,000 for your child at birth and never put another dime into stocks afterward your child could retire with more than 2,000 times your original investment Here s another way to think about it: The stock market, over this long period of time, has delivered nearly double the 59 percent average annual gains that long-term corporate bonds have produced Stocks have produced more than twice the 54 percent annual returns of long-term government bonds And as for cash accounts, it s not even close Equities have gained nearly three times as much as cash accounts on average, as measured by 30day Treasury bills, on a yearly basis, over the past three-quarters of a century
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Fig 5-1 Annualized Returns (1926 2003) As this chart indicates, stocks have far outpaced the average annual returns of bonds and cash throughout the past century
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But remember how we discussed the power of compound interest Though the 104 percent returns of stocks is around twice the 54 percent returns of longterm government bonds, the gap grows even bigger in real terms in actual dollars as time marches forward Let s plug the numbers into a nancial calculator, like we did in 3, to see how Let s start with stocks Assume we invest $10,000:
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Present value pv 10; 000
Assume that we invest for 10 years:
Number of years n 10
We know that stocks returned 104 percent:
Interest rate i 10:4
We then hit the future value ( fv) button And we get:
fv $26; 896:19
What this means is that a $10,000 investment grows to $26,896 over a 10-year stretch, assuming it grows at a rate of 104 percent a year In other words, your investing gain would be $16,896 (remember, we started with $10,000 and that grew to $26,896 so we subtracted $10,000 from $26,896 to arrive at $16,896)
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