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Moving Averages and Crosses: Simple and Exponential Moving averages are lagging indicators that are overlaid on the price chart and are used primarily to help traders identify a trend s direction, provide support or resistance, and generate trade signals A simple moving average (SMA) is a chart overlay that provides a smoothed average of the closing prices or opening prices for a particular period A simple moving
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Mastering the Currency Market
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average is calculated by adding together a speci c number of bars or candles closing prices and dividing that sum by the total number of time periods to get an average price The formula for a ve-period moving average is
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Figure 7-1 shows a ve-period simple moving average taken for EURUSD in summer 2008 As each candle is completed on the chart, a new average point is plotted so that over time the average moves forward, following price The shorter-term the time frame covered by the moving average is, the more sensitive the moving average becomes and the choppier the line becomes The longer-term the moving average is, the more
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Figure 7-1
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Five-Period Simple Moving Average
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desensitized it becomes and the smoother the line becomes The moving average is used to smooth out actual price action in an effort to make the trend easier to spot When price is trading above the moving average points, the trend is said to be higher, whereas price trading below the moving average indicates that the trend is lower Some analysts use longer-term moving averages such as 100-period and 200-period averages as support or resistance Longer-term averages also are used to generate signals in several ways If the close is above or below a particular moving average, a buy or sell signal may be generated A moving average cross is formed by using two separate averages that are based on two different time frames that then are used both to con rm trending price action and to generate trade signals Figure 7-2 is a chart of the S&P 500 stock index futures contract from the fourth quarter of 2007 through
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Figure 7-2
Fifty-Period and 200-Period Simple Moving Average
Mastering the Currency Market
the third quarter of 2008 with a 50-period and a 200-period simple moving average overlay When the shorter-term average crosses below the longerterm one, it is a sell signal and the trend is presumed to be down; similarly, when the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term one, it is a buy signal and the trend is said to be up Similarly, if price is above the moving averages, the trend is said to be up, and if price is below the moving averages, it is down The cross of the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA in late December 2007 in Figure 7-2 provides a well-timed sell trigger Such long-term averages are not sensitive and will keep you in a trade for an extended period; that can be trying, as was the case in March through May when the market rallied but rewarding from mid-May till mid-July as the market fell off and made a new low for the year Note how the 50-day SMA provided a pivotal level in March and April and again in late May and how the 200-day SMA provided a good resistance level in May Professionals tend to use 50-day and 200-day SMAs when they are analyzing or trading securities The exponential moving average (EMA) is a moving average overlay that puts more weight on the most recent closing prices to make it more responsive to newer incoming price data Currency traders often use 89-period and 144-period exponential moving averages simultaneously for their longterm charts, considering a crossover of the two averages an important signal When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term one, it is a sell signal and the trend is presumed to be down; when the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term one, it is a buy signal and the trend is said to be up Similarly, when price is above the moving averages, the
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