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Mastering the Currency Market
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Positive Divergence as Measured by MACD
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MACD Divergence Another way the MACD functions is to show signals called divergence Divergence occurs when a price is going in one direction and the MACD or another momentum-measuring indicator is not con rming that direction Price can be making lower lows, but if the rate of change is slowing over time, it will show up as higher lows or even a attening MACD This can telegraph a price pause or even a price reversal This is known as positive divergence between price and the MACD Figure 7-7 shows an example of positive divergence in the USDCHF in spring 2007 Negative divergence occurs when price is still rising but the MACD and the trigger line are moving sideways or falling
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In strong market moves it is not uncommon to see double or even triple divergence before seeing a signi cant correction or reversal As a rule of thumb, divergence over a shorter period is more powerful than divergence over a longer period Think of divergence as a development that indicates that a market needs to take a break It is reasonable to consider that there will be times in a bear market when a market becomes oversold, momentum starts to wane, and a correction is needed Price technically still is moving lower, but momentum is slowing Price may backtrack and test resistance before continuing on Although most market reversals exhibit divergence before they turn, they also exhibit this behavior just before normal consolidation periods
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Negative Divergence as Measured by MACD
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Mastering the Currency Market
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In Figure 7-8, which is a 240-minute chart of GBPUSD from September 2008, we have an example of negative divergence before a market turn and sell-off Figure 7-9, a chart of EURJPY from the second half of 2006, shows the many roles MACD can play in market analysis We see a prominent resistance level just above 15000 The market is respecting both the bull trendline and the resistance level In September and October the market goes at and starts to wrap around its monthly central pivot in black In early November it s safe to say that we don t know which way the market will break out The MACD, however, did give us a hint of the rally to come by staying above the zero level Note also how once the rally kicked off in earnest in late November, the
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Figure 7-9
MACD and Support and Resistance
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Figure 7-10
Divergence on MACD and MACD Histogram
MACD accelerated away from the trigger line This shows that the difference between the two lines was increasing This was a powerful signal telling traders to maintain their long positions After reading about chart patterns, we can see that in Figure 7-9 there is an ascending triangle, which is a bullish continuation pattern In our analysis we also will see divergence between the MACD histogram and price Just as the divergence between price and the MACD line can be signi cant, the divergence between the histogram and price also can be signi cant (see Figure 7-10) Traders often ask, Which divergence should we look for, that between the MACD cross (the black and gray lines) and price or that between the MACD histogram and price The
Mastering the Currency Market
answer is either one; however, short-term divergence generally will show up rst on the histogram and can be more signi cant After gauging the current price trend on the chart, we look for the direction of the MACD to con rm that trend We gauge the momentum of that trend through the MACD histogram We are also aware of which side of the zero line MACD is on For trade signals we want to have the MACD histogram moving in the same direction as the trade Once in the trade, we monitor the MACD histogram, and if momentum exists, we stay in the trade to let the pro t run If we get a MACD cross against our position on the same time frame we took the signal on, we almost certainly will take that as a signal to exit the trade To summarize, we use the MACD to identify trends as well as possible turning points or shifts in momentum and to keep us in a trend trade longer For countertrend trades we look for divergence between the MACD and/or the MACD histogram and price Before entering a trade, we always want to know the MACD s stance relative to the zero line and the direction of the MACD and its trigger line Bollinger Bands Bollinger bands were developed by John Bollinger as a way to incorporate volatility and price by using an 18-period simple moving average to help de ne price and trend and a 2 standard deviation measurement both added to and subtracted from the 18-period SMA to gauge potential volatility This tool is made up of three bands that are used in an attempt to encompass the majority of a market s price action The number of periods in an SMA and the width of the standard deviations are variables
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