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Forecasting techniques which are utilized to proportion a large-scale aviation activity down to a local level are called market share, ratio, or top-down models Inherent to the use of such a method is the demonstration that the proportion of the large-scale activity which can be assigned to the local level is a regular and predictable quantity This method has been the dominant technique for aviation demand forecasting at the local level and its most common use is in the determination of the share of total national traffic activity which will be captured by a particular region, traffic hub, or airport Historical data are examined to determine the ratio of local airport traffic to total national traffic and the trends are ascertained From exogenous sources the projected levels of national activity are determined and these values are then proportioned to the local airport based upon the observed and projected trends The ratio method is most commonly used in the development of microforecasts for regional airport system plans or for airport master plans These methods are particularly useful in applications in which it can be demonstrated that the market share is a regular, stable, or predictable parameter For example, the number of annual enplaned passengers at major air traffic hubs has been shown to be a consistent and relatively stable factor and, therefore, this method is often used to predict this parameter Quite often the application of the market share technique is a twostep process in which a ratio is applied to disaggregate activity forecasts from a national to a regional level and then another ratio is applied to apportion the regional share among the airports in the region The most compelling advantage of the market share method is its dependence on existing data sources which minimizes forecasting cost However, its principal disadvantages lie in its dependence on the stability and predictability of the ratios from which the forecasts are made and the uncertainty which may surround market shares in specific applications Several forecasts may be required under a differing set of assumptions which are deemed appropriate to the determination of market shares An illustration of the application of a market share analysis is given in Example Problem 5-2
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Airport Percentage of Regional Annual Enplanements
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FIGURE 5-2 Trend line of airport percentage of regional annual enplanements for Example Problem 5-2
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Example Problem 5-2 The historical data shown in Table 5-1 could also be used to prepare a forecast of the annual passenger enplanements at the study airport in the design years 2010 and 2015 using a market share method In applying the market share method to these data, a top-down forecast technique will be used The implicit assumption in such a technique is that the same relationship between regional annual enplanements and the annual enplanements at the study airport will be maintained in the future To prepare such a forecast, a projection of the percentage of the regional annual enplanements captured at the study airport is performed and then a forecast is made of the regional annual enplanements The study airport forecast percentage is applied to the regional forecast to arrive at the forecast of the study airport annual enplanements in the design years A plot of the trend in the percentage of regional annual passengers enplaned at the study airport is given in Fig 5-2 Because the variations shown in Fig 5-2 often make it difficult to determine if trends may exist, a smoothing function is often applied to the data to assist in identifying trends which may not be obvious In this case, a smoothing of the data was obtained by computing a running 3-year average of the data points As is shown in Fig 5-3, this tends to smooth out the variations in the original data and more readily identifies trends in these data Though it may not be apparent in the original plot, the smoothing mechanism does indicate a very slight upward trend in the percentage of regional annual passengers captured by the study airport This trend is shown by the dashed line in Fig 5-3 This trend line, when projected to the design years, indicates a forecast of
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