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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs, Tools and Techniques, and Outputs
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The inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs for the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process are as follows
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Inputs Here s a list of some of the inputs that should be considered when performing quantitative risk analysis:
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Risk register Risk management plan Cost management plan Schedule management plan Organizational process asset (risk databases, studies on similar risks, and so on)
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11: Project Risk Management
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Tools and Techniques
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Here are a few of the tools and techniques used in this process: Interviewing, data mining, Sensitivity analysis, EMV,
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Data gathering and representative techniques probability distributions, and so on
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Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques Monte Carlo analysis, and so on
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Expert judgment The use of subject matter experts who specialize in quantitative analysis
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Outputs The only output to the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process is the updates to the risk register (same as Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process) based on any new information acquired The updates to the risk register in this process might include statistical trends, updates to the prioritization list, and probabilistic analysis supported with facts and figures (for example, the schedule contingency shows the project is in the 78th percentile and is expected to complete on time)
Decision Tree Analysis
Decision trees are primarily used to assist the PM and team in making informed decisions about the risks and the alternatives being considered on the project (see example in Figure 11-3) Airline B has a lower fare but rates lower in on-time arrival
Factor to consider is on-time arrival Airline A (fare = $1,000) Pass (on-time) 85% Fail (late) $10,000 lost sale Travel Decision Pass (on-time) 60% Airline B (fare = $500) Airline A Airline B Fail (late) $10,000 lost sale
(15 x $10,000 = $1,500) + (85 x $00 = $00) + $1,000 = $2,500 (40 x $10,000 = $4,000) + (60 x $00 = $00) + $500 = $4,500
Figure 11-3 Decision tree diagram
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A decision tree typically has the following attributes:
A model of a real situation Takes into account future events to help you make a decision today Can be used to help calculate the expected monetary value (probability times impact) Involves mutual exclusivity (where two events are exclusive)
5 Plan Risk Responses Process
Planning risk responses involves developing options and actions to reduce the impact and probability of threats and to enhance opportunities This process answers (or should answer) the following questions:
What are we going to do if/when a particular risk event occurs What can we do to decrease the probability and/or impact of the event occurring What can we do to increase the opportunity should the event occur
This process is also where the risk owner (the person assigned the risk) will document a response strategy and action for the risk event should it occur
Risk Response Strategies
Sometimes called risk mitigation strategies Regardless of the name, the goal is clear: Keep things from breaking and fix them quickly so they don t break again in the future If something breaks, the question becomes How can we make it better Risk response strategies are different for threats and opportunities (see Table 11-5)
Response Strategies for Threats
Avoidance (do what you can to eliminate the threat) Mitigation (reduce probability or impact) Transfer (deflect or allocate; for example, by purchasing insurance) Accept the risk (do nothing)
Response Strategies for Opportunities
Exploit (reverse of avoidance take advantage of the risk should it occur) Enhance (increase likelihood) Share the risk (reverse of mitigation by writing joint responsibility in the contract or agreement) Accept the risk (do nothing)
Table 11-5 Risk Response Strategies
11: Project Risk Management NOTE
Transferring risk doesn t mean transferring all the ownership and accountability For example, outsourcing work to a vendor or third-party supplier doesn t let you off the hook for schedule delays or poor workmanship You are still responsible for the quality of the work Also, remember that accepting risk may be appropriate for either threats or opportunities
Risk response strategies vary from case to case and should be adapted to the project situation to the best of your ability Say, for example, you have two team members who are not showing up on time to meetings and are not meeting your expectations for performance on the project In one case (Joan), it appears her performance is affected by a lack of experience and training In the other case (Joey), it appears he is not interested in working on the project The response strategy you choose will likely be different for each You may decide to release Joey from the project and provide additional training and mentoring for Joan For more examples of risk response strategies, see Table 11-6
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