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Types of Duration Estimating
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PMI recognizes five tools and techniques for estimating the duration of the activities identified during the previous processes:
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Expert judgment This is the preferred technique, especially if you have worked with the project team before and you know who to call on for the best answers to certain questions For example, if you are estimating how long it takes to change over from an ice hockey arena to a rodeo at the BEC, you call on Jake or Matt who have done this activity a hundred times or more to tell you how long it takes You might also want to qualify the estimate based on skill level required (for example, the expert can do things quicker than a novice employee)
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Inputs
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Activity list Activity attributes Activity resources requirements Resource calendars Project scope statement Enterprise environmental factors Organizational process assets
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Tools and Techniques
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Expert judgment Analogous estimating Parametric estimating Three-point estimates Reserve analysis
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Outputs
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Activity duration estimates Project document updates
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Table 6-2
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Estimate Activity Durations Process Inputs, Tools and Techniques, and Outputs
PMP Certification: A Beginner s Guide TIP
When using expert judgment, the tendency is for the expert to provide a one-time estimate (one estimate per activity) There are advantages and disadvantages to a one-time estimate The advantage is you get the estimate directly from the expert, and usually this is the most accurate The disadvantage, especially if the activity is new or not frequently performed, is you tend to get padding in the time estimate The best solution is to have the team members participate in creating the WBS and then work from it for the best estimates possible
Analogous estimating This is a form of expert judgment that s also called top-down estimating It involves taking historical estimates from previous, similar projects (an analogy) This estimation technique is used to determine the duration when the detailed information about the project is not available, usually during the early stages of the project
PMI seems to prefer analogous estimating due to the use of historical information from previous, similar projects and tends to lean toward this type of estimating on the exam questions
Parametric estimating This type of estimating uses a cost per unit (quantifiable/ mathematical) model, such as cost per square foot (for a construction project), cost per line of code (for a software development project), and units per hour (for a manufacturing project) to determine how long an activity will take You simply multiply the cost per unit (price) by the quantity (P*Q) to get the estimated amount of work to determine the overall cost Three-point estimate In the real world, the probability of completing a project on a set date (especially when change is inevitable) is pretty low Therefore, the best way to determine the range of estimating accuracy is to estimate the probable date using a three-point estimate A weighted average is used to estimate the three times (or costs) Here is how it works: A subject matter expert (SME) who is very familiar with the activity estimates the best (optimistic = O), worst (pessimistic = P), and most likely (ML) time or cost to perform the activity Then you use the following formula to calculate the three-point estimate: (P + (4*ML) + O)/6 Note that PMI refers to the three-point time estimate as a PERT estimate along with two other formulas that may appear on the PMP exam for activity duration and cost estimating (see Figure 6-10) It would be a good idea to memorize them Also note that PMI has changed the look of the formula not the concept (see PMBOK page 150)
6: Project Time Management
Three-point estimate for an activity: (P + 4ML + O) 6
Standard deviation of an activity: P O 6
Variance of an activity: P O 6
Note: To estimate duration for the project, you need to add up the activity estimates on the critical path and because statistically you can t add standard deviations, you must calculate the variances for the activities
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