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come from organizations with sufficient process maturity to include a software metrics program
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Note When using the ISBSG equations and data, be aware that they
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probably reflect the best 25 percent of the industry The findings presented here pertain to this particular collection of projects It is possible that some findings are not generally applicable Nevertheless, most observations are in accordance with intuition This analysis provides a picture of the state of estimation in good software projects
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Whether an estimate is judged to be accurate or not depends on how much variation is acceptable between the estimated and actual value Two different thresholds are used in this analysis: 10 percent (that is, an estimate is considered to be accurate if the actual value is between 90 percent and 110 percent of the estimated value) and 20 percent (that is, an estimate is considered to be accurate if the actual value is between 80 percent and 120 percent of the estimated value) For effort, which is both the most important measure and the one with the greatest variation in accuracy, a threshold of 50 percent is also considered (that is, an estimate is considered to be accurate if the actual value is between 50 percent and 150 percent of the estimated value) The choice of threshold clearly influences the percentages of estimates that are considered to be accurate Readers should bear this in mind when quoting percentages from this chapter
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Release 11 of the ISBSG Repository has 861 projects for which some form of data about estimation is available These projects represent a broad cross-section of the software industry The profile of these projects is similar to the total collection of projects in the ISBSG Data Repository This is important, because it means you can expect that the results from this chapter apply just as well to the whole repository
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Effort is the worst estimated of the four key project attributes (effort, cost, duration, and size) For the other three, at least half of the projects are estimated accurately For effort only, about one-third of projects are estimated accurately
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3:
Software estimates: how accurate are they
The two most important estimates are project effort and duration (cost is dominated by effort, and size is mainly relevant as an input to the other estimates) From the 449 projects for which we know both the estimated and actual effort plus estimated and actual project delivery date, we can make the following observations: With a threshold of 10 percent for accuracy: 25 percent met both estimates to within 10 percent 23 percent underestimated effort and were delivered late 22 percent underestimated effort, but estimated the delivery date accurately 13 percent overestimated effort, but estimated the delivery date accurately 8 percent estimated effort accurately, but were delivered late Only 1 percent of projects came in more than 10 percent below the estimate for both effort and delivery date (that is, overestimated) The remaining combinations only account for 1 or 2 percent each With a threshold of 20 percent for accuracy: 44 percent met both estimates to within 20 percent 15 percent underestimated effort and were delivered late 19 percent underestimated effort, but estimated the delivery date accurately 9 percent overestimated effort, but estimated the delivery date accurately 8 percent estimated effort accurately, but were delivered late Only one project came in more than 20 percent below the estimate for both effort and delivery date (that is, overestimated) The remaining combinations only account for 1 or 2 percent each Errors in estimating effort correspond closely to errors in estimating cost, in both the size of the error and whether it is an overestimate or underestimate It is clear that cost and effort are strongly related This supports the intuition that cost is determined mainly by effort, since the major resource consumed by a software project is human effort Errors in size estimates also correspond to errors in effort estimates, although the association is not as strong as that between
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