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Note Forty-five percent of the projects underestimated effort by at least
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10 percent The overestimates occurred in small projects, only about half the size of the repository average Actual effort for these projects averaged 70 percent of estimated effort Underestimates occurred in a wide range of projects There is a weak trend toward larger projects, with larger development teams and longer durations, being more often underestimated There are no other patterns in terms of which types of projects are estimated better or worse than other types For the projects with effort underestimated, on average the actual error is 67 to 100 percent; in other words, the actual effort approaches double the estimate
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Note For the projects with effort underestimated, on average the actual
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effort approaches double the estimate For the most part, large errors in estimated effort are accompanied by similarly large errors in estimated cost
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The two main techniques for estimating effort are task-based workbreakdown methods, and estimation based on an estimate of functional size Task-based methods are more common (63 percent of projects compared to 31 percent, including 20 percent of projects that used both techniques) Task-based methods are more likely to underestimate effort Using a 10 percent margin for accuracy, task-based methods estimate effort accurately (to within 10 percent) in 32 percent of projects, and underestimate effort by at least 10 percent in 49 percent of projects For function point based methods the corresponding percentages are 40 percent accurate and 35 percent underestimated Using a 20 percent tolerance for accuracy, the gap is smaller: 54 percent accurate and 35 percent underestimated with task-based methods, 53 percent accurate and 29 percent underestimated with function point based methods On the other hand, median errors are smaller with task-based methods The median underestimate with task-based methods is 41 percent using a 10 percent threshold for accuracy, and 66 percent using a 20 percent threshold for accuracy With function point based methods the corresponding median underestimates are 72 percent and 86 percent respectively It appears that task-based estimates of effort are more likely to be wrong, but less likely to be badly wrong, than estimates based on functional size
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Estimated and actual delivery date and project duration are known for 538 projects Across the whole data set the mean actual duration is 98 months, and the median is 76 months The mean estimated duration is 8 months and the median is 66 months Delivery date is estimated relatively well Around 70 percent of the projects were delivered early or on time, including 375 percent that were delivered as scheduled: 5 percent of projects were delivered more than 10 percent ahead of schedule (that is, actual duration was less than 90 percent of the estimated duration), including 3 percent delivered more than 20 percent ahead of schedule 60 percent of projects were delivered with an actual duration within 10 percent of their estimated duration, and 70 percent were delivered with an actual duration within 20 percent of their estimated duration These numbers include 375 percent of projects that were delivered as scheduled 35 percent of projects were delivered more than 10 percent late, including 27 percent delivered more than 20 percent late The projects delivered early are below average in actual duration (mean and median both around 75 months) and above average in estimated duration (mean and median both around 12 months) Lower durations and higher estimates could both contribute to the estimates of duration being too low in these projects The median error was an underrun of 22 percent The projects delivered on time showed a wide spread of durations, sizes, and other project characteristics No patterns can be seen Of the projects delivered more than 10 percent late, 19 percent were up to 1 month late, 25 percent were 1 to 2 months late, 22 percent were 2 to 3 months late, 17 percent were 3 to 6 months late, and 15 percent were more than 6 months late Three percent were a year or more late, with the worst overrun being 33 months Late projects averaged 98 percent mean overrun and 40 percent median overrun in duration
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