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Note Late projects have a median overrun of 40 percent in duration
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The accuracy of the estimates varies according to how long the project was estimated to take in the first place Projects that were estimated to take a year or more were generally delivered on time For 65 percent of projects the actual duration was within 10 percent of the estimate, and
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20 percent underestimated duration by at least 10 percent Only 5 percent were late by more than 3 months The median overrun was 13 percent, or about 2 months Projects that were estimated to take 6 to 12 months did less well The actual duration was within 10 percent of the estimate in 61 percent of them Thirty-five percent of the projects underestimated duration by over 10 percent Thirteen percent were late by more than 3 months The median overrun was 25 months, or 30 percent Estimates were about as accurate for projects that were estimated to take 3 to 6 months as for projects estimated to take 6 to 12 months However, the worst underestimates came from this group (five of the six projects delivered more than a year late were in this group) Again, 61 percent of the projects estimated duration to within 10 percent of the actual duration, and 36 percent underestimated duration by more than 10 percent Eleven percent underestimated duration by more than 3 months The median overrun was 21 months, or 45 percent (The percentage is bigger, even though the number of months is smaller, because the average duration is shorter) Projects that were estimated to take up to 3 months have the biggest errors in percentage terms (because the planned duration is shortest for example, a project that was planned to take 1 month and was delivered 3 months late has a 300 percent error), but the actual values are not so bad Forty-five percent of the projects estimated duration to within 10 percent of the actual duration, and 42 percent underestimated duration by over 10 percent Fifteen percent underestimated duration by more than 3 months The median overrun was 23 months, or 127 percent When expressed as percentages, the errors are smaller for projects with large estimated durations and larger for projects with small estimated durations This is just a consequence of dividing by small or large numbers when calculating percentage errors It is more relevant to note that across all ranges of estimated duration, if duration was underestimated, the delay was about 2 months; delays of more than 3 months are more common in shorter projects than in projects that were estimated to take a year or more
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If a size estimate is available, it is generally used as an input for estimating duration, either directly, or as an input to an estimating tool If no size estimate is available, duration is normally determined by management directive or by work breakdown techniques
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The estimating techniques have some impact on the accuracy of the estimated duration Work breakdown techniques are accurate 24 percent of the time; the mean error is a 32 percent underestimate, and the median error is a 4 percent underestimate FP-based estimates are either very good or very bad: just under half are accurate, but 21 percent are wrong by 50 percent or more; the mean error is a 30 percent underestimate, and the median is a 10 percent underestimate In projects whose delivery date was determined by management directive, most were delivered on time or 1 month late; only 10 percent were delivered more than 2 months late Projects whose delivery date is determined by legal requirements or client directive do best, with an average error of only about 10 percent In summary, duration tends to be estimated fairly well, particularly for projects planned to take 12 months or more If duration is overestimated, it is probably by about 20 percent If duration is underestimated, the average overrun is about 2 to 3 months
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