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practical Software project estimation
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By following the instructions within the text and utilizing project data from the ISBSG Repository, you can duplicate the steps Jenny carries out to generate the estimates This will provide you with a practical introduction to using the macro-estimating techniques described in this book
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Example 1: Estimating Using Regression Equations
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One of the quickest and simplest mechanisms for generating estimates of project work effort and duration is to utilize equations developed from regression analysis of completed software projects Linear regression equations have been developed from the data in the ISBSG Repository2 for the following project classes: Projects classified by development platform: mainframe, midrange, PC, and multiplatform Projects classified by development language type: 3GL and 4GL Projects classified by project type: new development and enhancement Projects classified by a combination of development platform, development language type, and project type In conjunction with a project s functional size, or a combination of functional size and maximum team size, the regression equations can be used to generate estimates for: Project delivery rate (PDRRE), expressed in hours per function point Project work effort (PWERE), expressed in hours Speed of delivery (SDRE), expressed in function points per month Project duration (PDRE), expressed in months
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Using Regression Equations to Generate Estimates for SSRM
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Jenny uses the ISBSG regression equations to generate her first set of project work effort and duration estimates for the SSRM project
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Regression Equations: Functional Size
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Because the ISBSG regression equations consider the project s development platform, Jenny must first decide which regression equations she should use to generate her estimates
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The complete ISBSG project data is available on the ISBSG Estimating, Benchmarking & Research Suite The suite also includes the ISBSG Early Estimate Checker tool, which can be used to develop regression equation based estimates The suite can be licensed from wwwisbsgorg or from ISBSG member organizations
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project estimation Using the ISBSG repository
The project to develop SSRM will be a new development project SSRM will be developed for a combination midrange and PC platform Because all of the system s processing will occur on the midrange platform, with the PC platform limited to providing the standard web browser interface, Jenny initially decides to use the ISBSG regression equations for the class of new development projects developed for the midrange platform On viewing the ISBSG regression equations for this class of project, however, Jenny discovers that whilst a variation in functional size explains a reasonable variation in the project work effort, the same is not true for project delivery rate, speed of delivery, or project duration, where the equations R2(Adj)3 values are less than 025 Jenny therefore decides to use the ISBSG regression equations for the class of new development projects developed for a multiplatform to estimate speed of delivery and project duration These equations provide a reasonable match to her project and have substantially higher R2(Adj) values Jenny notes that none of the development platforms recorded in the ISBSG Repository can be used to generate effective project delivery rate estimates based upon functional size alone In all cases they lead to R2(Adj) values of less than 025 This is not too much of a concern for Jenny, however, because her goal is to determine estimates for project work effort and project duration, both of which she can do Using the selected regression equations for a project with a functional size of 540 function points, Jenny obtains the following estimates:
Project Delivery Rate (Appendix C, Table C-20) Project Work Effort (Appendix C, Table C-21) Project Duration (Appendix C, Table C-22) Speed of Delivery (Appendix C, Table C-23)
PDRRE
There are no suitable ISBSG regression equations for estimating project delivery rate from functional size alone = 1908 Size0883 = 1908 5400883 = 4,934 hours = 0423 Size0440 = 0423 5400440 = 67 months = 2367 Size0560 = 2367 5400560 = 80 function points per month
PWERE (New development/ Midrange) PDRE (New development/ Multi) SDRE (New development/ Multi)
Adjusted Squared Multiple R = R2(Adj) is a measure of how much of the variability between different projects is actually explained by the equation The maximum value is 100, which would occur when every project agreed exactly with the equation The closer the value is to 100, the better Even low values here can be meaningful; something is being explained, but randomness or variation in other predictive factors may have diluted the predictive effect Low values do not tell you much (equations with an R2(Adj) less than 025 are not even reported in these tables) High values, such as 080, are extremely encouraging (but are not necessarily conclusive)
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