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practical Software project estimation
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to calculate the estimates for project work effort (PWECE) and duration (PDCE) She obtains the following results:
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PDRCE PDRCE optimistic PDRCE likely PDRCE conservative
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= mean of optimistic/likely/ conservative project delivery rates = 73 hours per function point = 87 hours per function point = 148 hours per function point = PDRCE I Size = 3,954 hours = 4,721 hours = 7,989 hours = mean of optimistic/likely/ conservative speeds of delivery = 972 function points per month = 691 function points per month = 574 function points per month = Size / SDCE i = 56 months = 78 months = 94 months
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PWECE PWECE optimistic PWECE likely PWECE conservative
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SDCE SDCE optimistic SDCE likely SDCE conservative
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PDCE PDCE optimistic PDCE likely PDCE conservative
Estimating by comparison indicates that the SSRM project will require: Between 3,954 and 7,989 hours of work, with a likely value of 4,721 hours and Between 56 and 94 months, with a likely value of 78 months to complete
Discussion
Jenny has now completed the target project s estimation using the comparison technique She has optimistic, likely, and conservative estimates for SSRM s project work effort and duration Of immediate interest is a comparison between the earlier regression equation estimates and the comparative estimates The comparative estimate s likely project work effort estimate of 4,721 hours aligns very closely with the regression equation estimate of 4,752 hours (regression equation estimate considering both functional size and maximum team size)
13:
project estimation Using the ISBSG repository
The comparative estimate s likely project duration estimate of 78 months aligns reasonably closely (that is, is 16 percent higher) to the original regression equation estimate of 67 months (regression equation estimate considering functional size alone) In other words, when several more of the SSRM s attributes were explicitly considered, they were found to support the regression equation estimate for project work effort and to suggest a slight increase for project duration Based upon her knowledge of the many other project attributes that were not addressed by the estimating by comparison technique, but which can also impact project work effort and duration, Jenny could now attempt to determine what actual value from within the estimate ranges she should select as the SSRM project estimates Doing that, however, would limit the amount of information the estimating by comparison process has made available to her Jenny therefore chooses to focus on the full estimate range: If the project goes extremely well with no major problems, with less than the normal amount of holdups, scope creep, and rework, and no personnel changes, it should be possible to achieve the optimistic estimates If the project follows the normal path, the likely estimates should be achievable If, on the other hand, significant but surmountable problems and holdups occur during the project, it may be possible to achieve only the conservative estimates Utilizing the full range of estimate values, Jenny and the other Supersoft personnel in charge of the SSRM project can now consider the impact on their budget, resources, and the company s future of either a highly successful, normal, or highly unsuccessful SSRM project The full range of estimate values will also be more useful than a single estimate value to Jenny when she later uses the comparative estimates to help validate the task-based micro-estimates If SSRM s task-based estimates fall within the comparative estimate ranges, Jenny can feel more confident that the task-based estimates are consistent with the values typically achieved by the industry for this type of project If not, this will highlight the need to investigate whether there are valid reasons for SSRM being expected to have significantly better or worse project work effort or duration than is typically achieved
Example 3: Estimating Using Analogy
The estimating by comparison technique just described allowed the estimator to tune the estimates calculated from the ISBSG Repository data to reflect the explicit attributes of a particular project In doing
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