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practical Software project estimation
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so, however, estimating by comparison still relies upon calculating averages from a number of projects in the repository that are somewhat similar to the target project Estimating by comparison does not attempt to find or to give additional weight to the one or small number of projects in the repository that are most similar to the target project Its inability to focus on these most similar projects means that estimating by comparison may fail to properly consider the projects in the repository that can provide some of the most useful information The estimating using analogy technique presented here is a technique that focuses upon finding the project, or projects, in the repository most similar to the target project and then utilizing their actual values of project work effort and duration as estimates for the target project These matching projects are known as analogs The estimating using analogy process is demonstrated in detail in the following section
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The Estimating by Analogy Technique
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Estimating using analogy utilizes the following approach to estimate project work effort and duration using data from the ISBSG Repository: 1 Determine the target project s value for each of the project attributes recorded in the ISBSG Repository6 2 Attempt to select a project analog from the ISBSG Repository that has the same attribute values as the target project Ideally, this step will identify a single project analog In reality, however, this is often not the case If there is no single project analog in the repository, then it will be necessary to eliminate one or more of the recorded project attributes from the matching set until an analog can be found Careful judgment needs to be exercised to determine which attributes should be eliminated from the matching set to ensure that those that have the most impact on the project work effort or duration are not eliminated Another problem associated with selectively eliminating project attributes is that different subsets of matching attributes may identify different project analogs Once again, careful judgment must be exercised to determine which subset of attributes is the most significant and hence, which analog should be selected If matching all the project attributes identifies more than one project analog, then the estimator has the choice of either
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The complete ISBSG project data is available on the ISBSG Estimating, Benchmarking & Research Suite that can be licensed from wwwisbsgorg or from ISBSG member organizations
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project estimation Using the ISBSG repository
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considering additional project attributes, in order to allow some of the first set of analogs to be eliminated, or of working with multiple project analogs If the latter choice is made, the estimator might decide to use the averages of the analogs project work effort and duration as the estimate values Care must be taken with such an approach, however If a small number of analogs display a wide variation in project work effort or duration values, then the estimating by comparison technique that also works with averages but considers a larger number of projects when determining those averages, may be a preferable approach 3 Estimate the project work effort and duration for the target project from the analog project s actual values It is often necessary to adjust the analog s values to account for any remaining differences between the target and the analog such as a variation in functional size
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Because estimating using analogy bases its estimates upon one or a small number of project analogs, it is more susceptible to errors resulting from selecting invalid project data points than the other techniques we have discussed With these other techniques, the impact of a single invalid project data point will usually be quite small, because that data point is not considered individually, but always as one of a number of project data points that contribute to an average value For this reason, estimating using analogy should probably be used only when the estimator is confident of the accuracy and completeness of all the potential project analogs Ideally, having selected an initial analog, the estimator would then be able to find out more about that project either through speaking to the project team members or by accessing the project documentation This would allow the estimator to validate that the analog really did match the target project and that there were no extraneous issues to account for the achieved project work effort and duration Because this level of validation is not possible for projects in the ISBSG Repository, estimators need to be very careful in using the repository as a source of analogs One way of minimizing this risk is to always use the estimating using analogy technique as a mechanism for validating existing estimates, rather than as the means for generating the estimates in the first place
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