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If the estimates differ from each other by more than one value on the story point scale, then the estimators with the largest and smallest estimates may be called upon to explain the rationales for their estimates After this, the estimators will typically produce new estimates, and the process will be repeated If after three iterations of the estimation process a unanimous agreement cannot be reached, then a decision should be made This may involve eliminating any outliers or having the facilitator make the decision based upon his or her understanding of the story involved An important goal of the estimation process is that it should be done as quickly as is practicable Example Table 14-3 shows the result of the first estimate round for a group of six developers allocating story points to story 12 from the planned Back Office Billing and Inventory project In this case, story points are allocated using the scale beginning with six numbers from the Fibonacci sequence and then continuing with two larger numbers, that is, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 50 At this time, the developers estimates do not align Allocated story points range from 3 to 8, a difference of two values on the story point scale The developers who proposed the lowest and highest values are now called upon to explain the rationales for their choices Following this discussion all the developers undertake a second estimate round The following table shows the result of the second estimate round for story 12
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Story 12
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Estimate Round 2
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Developer X Allocated Story Points 1 5 2 8 3 8 4 5 5 5 6 5
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After this second estimate round, the developers estimates differ by only one value on the story point scale A third estimate round could now be undertaken to try and obtain universal agreement Instead, however, the group chooses to select the smaller estimate of
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Story 12 Table 14-3 Estimate Round 1 Developer X Allocated Story Points 1 5 2 3 3 8 4 3 5 5 6 8
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Back Office Billing and Inventory Project: Allocated Story Points
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5 story points This choice is based upon the previously agreed upon procedure to select the smaller of the two estimates if those estimates only differ by one value on the story point scale Doing this helps to ensure that the estimation process continues to progress quickly and effectively Having successfully allocated story points for story 12, the developers now move onto the project s next story
Estimating Total Project Schedule and Cost at Project Initiation
Story points can be used to estimate the likely total project schedule and cost prior to the start of the project development iterations Doing this requires that all of the project s stories have been identified and sized in story points and that the likely development team velocity is known Ideally, all the project developers will have participated in allocating the story points to the project s stories However, it is not uncommon for the initial order of magnitude estimates devised at project initiation to be determined by a smaller group of key developers and project personnel The project schedule estimate is determined by combining the project iteration duration with its story point total divided by its likely velocity The project cost can then be estimated based upon the required number of project iterations combined with the developer costs associated with a single iteration It is important to remember that estimates determined at project initiation should be viewed as order of magnitude estimates only The full details and complexity of all the project stories may not yet be known Their story point sizes may change once that information is available Additionally, in an Agile project new stories may be identified as the project progresses Example Table 14-4 shows initial project schedule and cost estimates for the Back Office Billing and Inventory project based upon the project size of 147 story points and likely velocity of 22 story points per iteration These initial estimates suggest a project duration and cost of around 28 weeks and $262,500, respectively For Agile projects sized using Function Point Analysis, the initial project schedule and cost estimates can be determined by combining the project s function point size with its likely speed of delivery and project delivery rate, respectively The project s cost can be estimated directly from its project delivery rate when the project delivery rate is expressed in terms of cost per function point (for example, $1,500 per function point) Often, however, the project delivery rate is expressed in terms of effort per function
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