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But is it all necessary Not really. When you consider that people do damaging things to force unnecessary growth, you can say that it s a crime against the brand. This story illustrates how the desire for growth is at the root of evil doings. We were brought in to evaluate the business plans for a large multibrand drug company. In turn, the brand managers stood up and presented their next year s plans. In the course of a presentation, a young executive warned of aggressive new competition in his category that would definitely change the balance of power. But when it came to a sales projection, he predicted a 15 percent increase. Instantly, we questioned how this could be, given the new competition. His answer was that his group was going to do some short-term maneuvering and line extension. Long term, wouldn t this hurt the brand Well, yes. Then why do it Because his boss had made him put in the increase, and I would have to talk with him. One week later, his boss admitted the problem but said that his boss needed the increase because of, you guessed it, Wall Street.
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The 15 Percent Delusion
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Carol Loomis, a well-known Fortune editor, wrote a landmark article on this subject that challenged the
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brash predictions about earning growth that often lead to missed targets, battered stock and creative accounting. The article asked: Why can t CEOs kick the habit In the article, Carol laid out what has become accepted executive behavior:
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Of all the goals articulated, the most common one among good-sized companies is annual growth in earnings per share of 15 percent the equivalent, you might say, of making the all star team. With 15 percent growth, a company will roughly double its earnings in five years. It will almost inevitably star in the stock market, and its CEO will be given, so to speak, ticker-tape parades.*
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You don t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out why this happens. It s these kinds of predictions that get Wall Street s attention. It s like a love dance between Wall Street and management as they whisper sweet nothings to each other. Management wants the top analysts to follow the company and recommend its stock. Wall Street wants a winner to make analysts look good and attract more money. But there is no reality in all this. It s all delusion.
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* Carol J. Loomis, Reporter Assoc., Fortune, February 5, 2001.
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The Real Numbers
As Loomis points out in her article, extensive research shows that few companies are able to grow 15 percent or more a year. Over the past 40 years, Fortune looked at 150 companies over three basic time periods (1960 1980, 1970 1990, and 1989 1999). In each of those time frames, only three or four companies achieved the 15 percent or more earnings growth factor. About 20 to 30 companies ran at a 10 to 15 percent clip, 40 to 60 companies ran at 5 to 10 percent, 20 to 30 at 0 to 5 percent, and 20 to 30 actually ran at a negative number. That s right, there were as many big losers as big winners. Overall, during that 40-year period, the after-tax profits grew at an annual rate of just over 8 percent. This means that any company doing 15 percent was running at almost twice the rate of the general population of companies. With that reality, it s not surprising that companies start to do some bad things to keep their growth rate up.
Insidious Stock Options
Where Wall Street often sneaks into the equation is in the form of stock options. When managers or even middle-level employees are looking at their stock options,
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